Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31879754›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2020

Early Evidence of Inactivated Enterovirus 71 Vaccine Impact Against Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Major Center of Ongoing Transmission in China, 2011-2018: A Longitudinal Surveillance Study.

Jennifer R Head, Philip A Collender, Joseph A Lewnard, Nicholas K Skaff, Ling Li, Qu Cheng, Julia M Baker, Charles Li, Dehao Chen, Alison Ohringer and 5 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
41citing papers in PubMed
4.5field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

41 citing papers in PubMed, 57 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Jennifer R HeadDivision of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Philip A CollenderDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Joseph A LewnardDivision of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Nicholas K SkaffDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Ling LiInstitute for Public Health Information, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, China.
Qu ChengDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Julia M BakerDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Charles LiDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Dehao ChenDepartment of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Alison OhringerDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Song LiangDepartment of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Changhong YangInstitute for Public Health Information, Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, China.
Alan HubbardDivision of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
Benjamin LopmanDepartment of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Justin V RemaisDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
University of California, Berkeley · USEmory University · USSichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention · CNUniversity of Florida · US

Funding

Modeling the impact and cost-effectiveness of next-generation rotavirus vaccine strategies in low- and middle-income countriesR01AI112970 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI PITZER, VIRGINIA E · 2015 to 2024
$4.1M
Spatio-temporal data integration methods for infectious disease surveillanceR01AI125842 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI CHANG, HOWARD H, REMAIS, JUSTIN V · 2017 to 2021
$3.6M
Effects of agricultural expansion and intensification on infectionsR01TW010286 · FIC · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA · PI REMAIS, JUSTIN V, ROHR, JASON ROBERT · 2015 to 2019
$2.4M
FIC NIH HHS R01 TW010286NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI125842
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEnterovirus 71 (EV71) is a major causative agent of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), associated with severe manifestations of the disease. Pediatric immunization with inactivated EV71 vaccine was initiated in 2016 in the Asia-Pacific region, including China. We analyzed a time series of HFMD cases attributable to EV71, coxsackievirus A16 (CA16), and other enteroviruses in Chengdu, a major transmission center in China, to assess early impacts of immunization.

methodsReported HFMD cases were obtained from China's notifiable disease surveillance system. We compared observed postvaccination incidence rates during 2017-2018 with counterfactual predictions made from a negative binomial regression and a random forest model fitted to prevaccine years (2011-2015). We fit a change point model to the full time series to evaluate whether the trend of EV71 HFMD changed following vaccination.

resultsBetween 2011 and 2018, 279 352 HFMD cases were reported in the study region. The average incidence rate of EV71 HFMD in 2017-2018 was 60% (95% prediction interval [PI], 41%-72%) lower than predicted in the absence of immunization, corresponding to an estimated 6911 (95% PI, 3246-11 542) EV71 cases averted over 2 years. There were 52% (95% PI, 42%-60%) fewer severe HFMD cases than predicted. However, the incidence rate of non-CA16 and non-EV71 HFMD was elevated in 2018. We identified a significant decline in the trend of EV71 HFMD 4 months into the postvaccine period.

conclusionsWe provide the first real-world evidence that programmatic vaccination against EV71 is effective against childhood HFMD and present an approach to detect early vaccine impact or intended consequences from surveillance data.

Indexed as

EnterovirusEnterovirus A, HumanHand, Foot and Mouth DiseaseAsiaChildChinaHumansInfantVaccines, InactivatedVaccines, InactivatedChinaenterovirusEV71hand, foot, and mouth diseasevaccine

Identifiers

PMID31879754
PMCPMC7819528
OpenAlexW2997007591

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.