ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2019
Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Identification of AMOTL2 as an antiviral factor that enhances the human type I interferon response against Zika virus.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- A decade later, what have we learned from the Zika epidemic in children with intrauterine exposure?Lancet (London, England) · 2025Review
- Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Review
- Zika Virus Disease in India.Journal of preventive medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Seroprevalence and Placental Transfer of Zika and Dengue Virus Antibodies in Postpartum Women in Southeast Brazil.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Zika Virus-A Reemerging Neurotropic Arbovirus Associated with Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Neuropathogenesis.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?FEMS microbiology reviews · 2023Review
- Article
- Zika virus-like particle vaccine protects AG129 mice and rhesus macaques against Zika virus.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Hide and Seek: The Interplay Between Zika Virus and the Host Immune Response.Frontiers in immunology · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The 2015-2017 epidemics of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas caused widespread infection, followed by protective immunity. The timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak remains unclear. We used an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of age-specific immunity to ZIKV, and predict the future age-specific risk using data from Managua, Nicaragua. We also investigated the potential impact of a ZIKV vaccine. Assuming lifelong immunity, the risk of a ZIKV outbreak will remain low until 2035 and rise above 50% in 2047. The imbalance in age-specific immunity implies that people in the 15-29 age range will be at highest risk of infection during the next ZIKV outbreak, increasing the expected number of congenital abnormalities. ZIKV vaccine development and licensure are urgent to attain the maximum benefit in reducing the population-level risk of infection and the risk of adverse congenital outcomes. This urgency increases if immunity is not lifelong.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.