ArticleIranian journal of medical sciences2019
Potential Effects of Climatic Parameters on Human Brucellosis in Fars Province, Iran, during 2009-2015.
Article in Iranian journal of medical sciences, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental factors of human brucellosis in mainland China, 2004-2022.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Climate-Sensitive Transmission of Human Brucellosis: A Systematic Review of Climatic and Environmental Determinants in the Middle East.Journal of tropical medicine · 2026Review
- Climate sensitivity is widely but unevenly spread across zoonotic diseases.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Ecological study of human brucellosis in Iran from 2000 to 2023 and the limited role of climatic factors.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Incidence trend analysis of human brucellosis in the context of human development: an ecological study using joinpoint regression in Iran.BMC public health · 2025Article
- The Effect of Climate Change on Emergence and Evolution of Zoonotic Diseases in Asia.Zoonoses and public health · 2025Review
- Spatiotemporal distribution and ecological factors of disease burden in Inner Mongolia's working age population with brucellosis from 2015 to 2020.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Socioeconomic, meteorological factors and spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in China between 2004 and 2019-A study based on spatial panel model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundHuman brucellosis is widespread in Fars province. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of climate on its incidence and determine the areas prone to the infection.
methodsMonthly meteorological data and the incidence rate of human brucellosis during 2009-2015 were collected and their correlation was studied using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Additionally, the multiple regression method and multi-layer perceptron neural network model were used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis. In order to analyze the data SPSS software (version 16.0), MATLAB software (version 8.1), and GIS software (version 10.4) were used.
resultsPearson's regression analysis, on a monthly basis, showed a significant indirect correlation between the incidence of human brucellosis (with a time lag of up to 5 months) and climatic parameters (minimum temperature: -0.72 and evaporation: -0.73) in Abadeh (Fars, Iran). Moreover, there was a significant direct correlation (P<0.001) between the incidence of human brucellosis and the maximum relative humidity (+0.67) and rainfall (+0.48). The incidence of human brucellosis in Abadeh was predicted by using artificial neural network models (4 layers, 4 neurons in each layer), the Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm, and Sigmoid transfer function. It was determined that a correlation rate of 0.89 in the training level and 0.8 in the test level (with the lowest error rate) were the best values in multi-layer perceptron modeling.
conclusionClimatic parameters are important factors in determining the incidence rate of human brucellosis in Fars province. Climate conditions provide a favorable environment for the spread of human brucellosis in this area.
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