Development and validation of a simple risk model to predict major cancers for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

objectiveTo recognize risk factors and build up and validate a simple risk model predicting 8-year cancer events after nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

methodsThis was a retrospective cohort study. Patients with NAFLD (n = 5561) were randomly divided into groups: training (n = 1254), test (n = 627), evaluation (n = 627), and validation (n = 3053). Risk factors were recognized by statistical method named as a Cox model with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This prediction score was established based on the training group and was further validated based on the testing and evaluation group from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 and another 3053 independent cases from January 1, 2010 to February 13, 2014.

resultsThe main outcomes were NAFLD-related cancer events, including those of the liver, breast, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, prostate and colon, within 8 years after hospitalization for NAFLD diagnosis. Seven risk factors (age (every 5 years),LDL, smoking, BMI, diabetes, OSAS, and aspartate aminotransferase (every 5 units)) were identified as independent indicators of cancer events. This risk model contained a predictive range of 0.4%-37.7%, 0.3%-39.6%, and 0.4%-39.3% in the training, test, evaluation group, respectively, with a range 0.4%-30.4% for validation groups. In the training group, 12.6%, 76.9%, and 10.5% of patients, which corresponded to the low -, moderate -, and high-risk groups, had probabilities of, <0.01, <0.1, and 0.23 for 8-year events.

conclusionsSeven risk factors were recognized and a simple risk model were developed and validated to predict the risk of cancer events after NAFLD based on 8 years. This simple risk score system may recognize high-risk patients and reduce cancer incidence.