ArticleThe Medical journal of Australia2020
Estimating the magnitude of cancer overdiagnosis in Australia.
Article in The Medical journal of Australia, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 59 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Correlation Between Online Case-based Training of Pathologists in Dermoscopic Images and Diagnostic Accuracy in Histopathological Interpretation of Skin Lesions Suspicious of Melanoma
Diagnostic Agreement Among Expert Dermatopathologists on Skin Lesions Clinically Suspicious of Melanoma
Who cites it
59 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of microsimulation models for skin cancer.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Pooled it
- Assessing the Potential for Patient-led Surveillance After Treatment of Localized Melanoma (MEL-SELF): A Pilot Randomized Clinical Trial.JAMA dermatology · 2022Trial
- The Clinical Significance of Extrapancreatic Incidental Findings Detected During Pancreas Surveillance.Gastro hep advances · 2026Article
- Article
- The 2024 revisions of the McDonald criteria pose risk of multiple sclerosis overdiagnosis.Nature reviews. Neurology · 2025Article
- A Clinical Perspective on Melanoma Overdiagnosis.The Australasian journal of dermatology · 2025Review
- Development of a Decision Aid for Patients With Low-Risk Thyroid Cancer: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Feedback From Both Patient and Clinicians.World journal of surgery · 2025Article
- Evidence categories in systematic assessment of cancer overdiagnosis.BMJ evidence-based medicine · 2025Review
- Exploring colorectal cancer patients' diagnostic pathways and general practitioners' assessment of the diagnostic processes: a Danish survey study.Scandinavian journal of primary health care · 2025Article
- Risk of Cancer Recurrence Exerts the Strongest Influence on Choice Between Active Surveillance and Thyroid Surgery as Initial Treatment for Low-Risk Thyroid Cancer: Results of a Discrete Choice Experiment.World journal of surgery · 2025Article
- Long-acting, progestin-based contraceptives and risk of breast, gynecological, and other cancers.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- Red flags in global autism data: a forensic analysis of prevalence patterns and official aid dependencies.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Article
- Article
- Estimating the Proportion of Overdiagnosis among Prostate, Breast, and Thyroid Cancers in China: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2024Article
- Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines.International journal of cancer · 2024Article
- Fictitious cases as a methodology to discuss sensitive health topics in focus groups.International journal of qualitative studies on health and well-being · 2023Article
- Pituitary adenoma or neuroendocrine tumour: the need for an integrated prognostic classification.Nature reviews. Endocrinology · 2023Review
- Impact of Breast Cancer Screening on 10-Year Net Survival in Canadian Women Age 40-49 Years.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2023Article
- Melanoma Over-diagnosis: Historical Perspective and the Path Forward.Dermatology practical & conceptual · 2023Article
- Improving Skin Cancer Diagnostics Through a Mobile App With a Large Interactive Image Repository: Randomized Controlled Trial.JMIR dermatology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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- Erratum issuedErratum.2020
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo estimate the proportion of cancer diagnoses in Australia that might reasonably be attributed to overdiagnosis by comparing current and past lifetime risks of cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND
participantsRoutinely collected Australian Institute of Health and Welfare national data were analysed to estimate recent (2012) and historical (1982) lifetime risks (adjusted for competing risk of death and changes in risk factors) of diagnoses with five cancers: prostate, breast, renal, thyroid cancers, and melanoma.
main outcome measureDifference in lifetime risks of cancer diagnosis between 1982 and 2012, interpreted as probable overdiagnosis.
resultsFor women, absolute lifetime risk increased by 3.4 percentage points for breast cancer (invasive cancers, 1.7 percentage points), 0.6 percentage point for renal cancer, 1.0 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 5.1 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 0.7 percentage point). An estimated 22% of breast cancers (invasive cancers, 13%), 58% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 54% of melanomas (invasive melanoma, 15%) were overdiagnosed, or 18% of all cancer diagnoses (8% of invasive cancer diagnoses). For men, absolute lifetime risk increased by 8.2 percentage points for prostate cancer, 0.8 percentage point for renal cancer, 0.4 percentage point for thyroid cancer, and 8.0 percentage points for melanoma (invasive melanoma, 1.5 percentage points). An estimated 42% of prostate cancers, 42% of renal cancers, 73% of thyroid cancers, and 58% of melanomas (invasive melanomas, 22%) were overdiagnosed, or 24% of all cancer diagnoses (16% of invasive cancer diagnoses). Alternative assumptions slightly modified the estimates for overdiagnosis of breast cancer and melanoma.
conclusionsAbout 11 000 cancers in women and 18 000 in men may be overdiagnosed each year. Rates of overdiagnosis need to be reduced and health services should monitor emerging areas of overdiagnosis.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.