ArticleWorld journal of surgery2020
The Scale-Up of the Global Surgical Workforce: Can Estimates be Achieved by 2030?
Article in World journal of surgery, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Medical specialists in LMICs: a systematic review and best-fit framework synthesis of the evidence on their roles and contribution to health systems.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- The impact of surgical task-sharing in Sierra Leone: a nationwide longitudinal observational study on surgical workforce and volume, 2012-2023.BMJ global health · 2025Observational
- Mastering the Art of Independent Surgery: 10 Tips for Solo Surgeons in Reconstructive Microsurgery.Plastic and reconstructive surgery. Global open · 2025Article
- Lived experience of burnout and fatigue in perioperative healthcare professionals in Rwanda: a qualitative study.British journal of anaesthesia · 2024Article
- Achieving Surgical, Obstetric, Trauma, and Anesthesia (SOTA) care for all in South Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- Evaluating the status of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery indicators for India.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2023Review
- Bilateral trauma case conferences: an approach to global surgery equity through a virtual education exchange.Global surgical education : journal of the Association for Surgical Education · 2023Article
- The impact of traumatic brain injury on economic productivity in the Caribbean.Brain & spine · 2023Article
- Prioritization of surgical, obstetric, trauma, and anesthesia care in India over seven decades: A systematic analysis of policy documents.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Assessment of Surgical Care Provided in National Health Services Hospitals in Mozambique: The Importance of Subnational Metrics in Global Surgery.World journal of surgery · 2021Article
- Exploring the Impact of COVID-19 on Progress Towards Achieving Global Surgery Goals.World journal of surgery · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe Lancet Commission on Global Surgery showed that countries with surgeon, anesthetist, and obstetrician (SAO) densities of 20-40 SAO/100,000 population were associated with improved health outcomes and recommended a global surgical workforce scale-up by 2030. Whether countries would be able to achieve such scale-up efforts in that time-frame is unknown.
methodsA differential equation model was used to estimate the growth rate and number of SAO necessary for each country to reach the aforementioned SAO densities. Workforce data from Mexico and India were used to estimate achievable rates of SAO scale-up for middle- and low-income countries, respectively. Secular surgical growth rates were estimated to demonstrate what might occur without dedicated scale-up efforts.
resultsTo reach at least 20 SAO/100,000 population in all countries by 2030, over 808 thousand SAO need to be trained by 2030. To reach at least 40 SAO/100,000 population, over 2.1 million SAO need to be trained. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to Mexico's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 66% of countries would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to India's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 56% would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030.
conclusionWith dedicated efforts in surgical workforce scale-up, significant gains in SAO density can be made worldwide. However, without intervention, many countries are unlikely to improve their current workforce densities. Investments in workforce scale-up are likely to yield workforce gains that mirror current resource states.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.