Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31858114›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA2020

Temporal convolutional networks allow early prediction of events in critical care.

Finneas J R Catling, Anthony H Wolff

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  16. Estimated PaoCritical care explorations · 2021
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  17. Interpretable disease prediction using heterogeneous patient records with self-attentive fusion encoder.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2021
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  18. Severity Trajectories of Pediatric Inpatients Using the Criticality Index.Pediatric critical care medicine : a journal of the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the World Federation of Pediatric Intensive and Critical Care Societies · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Finneas J R CatlingDivision of Surgery and Allied Specialities, Barnet Hospital, Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Anthony H WolffDivision of Surgery and Allied Specialities, Barnet Hospital, Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveClinical interventions and death in the intensive care unit (ICU) depend on complex patterns in patients' longitudinal data. We aim to anticipate these events earlier and more consistently so that staff can consider preemptive action. MATERIALS AND

methodsWe use a temporal convolutional network to encode longitudinal data and a feedforward neural network to encode demographic data from 4713 ICU admissions in 2014-2018. For each hour of each admission, we predict events in the subsequent 1-6 hours. We compare performance with other models including a recurrent neural network.

resultsOur model performed similarly to the recurrent neural network for some events and outperformed it for others. This performance increase was more evident in a sensitivity analysis where the prediction timeframe was varied. Average positive predictive value (95% CI) was 0.786 (0.781-0.790) and 0.738 (0.732-0.743) for up- and down-titrating FiO2, 0.574 (0.519-0.625) for extubation, 0.139 (0.117-0.162) for intubation, 0.533 (0.492-0.572) for starting noradrenaline, 0.441 (0.433-0.448) for fluid challenge, and 0.315 (0.282-0.352) for death. DISCUSSION: Events were better predicted where their important determinants were captured in structured electronic health data, and where they occurred in homogeneous circumstances. We produce partial dependence plots that show our model learns clinically-plausible associations between its inputs and predictions.

conclusionTemporal convolutional networks improve prediction of clinical events when used to represent longitudinal ICU data.

Indexed as

Critical CareIntensive Care UnitsNeural Networks, ComputerAgedAged, 80 and overComputer SimulationFemaleHospitalizationHospital MortalityHumansLogistic ModelsMachine LearningMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisairway extubationartificial intelligencecritical caremachine learningoxygen inhalation therapy

Identifiers

PMID31858114
PMCPMC7647248

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.