ArticleBulletin of emergency and trauma2019
Five-Year Forecasting Deaths Caused by Traffic Accidents in Fars Province of Iran.
Article in Bulletin of emergency and trauma, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 20 citations in OpenAlex.
- Challenges and Barriers of Reducing Fatalities and Injuries from Road Traffic Accidents: A Systematic Scoping Review of National and International Solutions.Bulletin of emergency and trauma · 2026Article
- Incidence, Pattern and Mortality of Traumatic Abdominal Injury, a Three-Year Study at the Largest Trauma Center in Southern Iran: A Cross-Sectional Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years.Chinese journal of traumatology = Zhonghua chuang shang za zhi · 2024Article
- The Trend of Death Rate and Causes of Death Based on the ICD-10 among Young People in Iran within the Last Three Decades.Iranian journal of public health · 2024Article
- Health Promotion Interventions on Helmet Use: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Pre-Test and Post-Test Studies.Iranian journal of public health · 2023Review
- Incidence and pattern of traumatic spine injury in a single level I trauma center of southern Iran.Chinese journal of traumatology = Zhonghua chuang shang za zhi · 2023Article
- Prediction of Helmet Use Behavior among Motorcyclists Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior.Journal of research in health sciences · 2022Article
- Designing and conducting initial application of a performance assessment model for in-hospital trauma care.BMC health services research · 2022Article
- Factors Influencing the Use of Pedestrian Bridges in North of Iran.Bulletin of emergency and trauma · 2022Article
- Establishment of a novel triage system for SARS-CoV-2 among trauma victims in trauma centers with limited facilities.Trauma surgery & acute care open · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThe aim of study was to conduct a time-based analysis to utilize the obtained knowledge for forecasting the trend of accidents in the future.
methodsThe present study, which was conducted as a cross-sectional research, investigated deaths from traffic accidents in Fars Province during a five-year period from 2013 to 2018. The pseudo-regression model of Spline was used to predict the increase in mortality rate by 2021.
resultsThe forecasted values indicated a decline in deaths from traffic accidents by 2021. A total of 8020 records of accidents leading to death were included in the study. The mean mortality rate from traffic accidents in the province was approximately estimated to be 33.7 per 100,000 populations. More than half of the people who died (52.36%) were in a car, 25.57% were motorcycle riders, and 19.93% were pedestrians. The highest rate of deaths was observed in the age group of 16 to 25 years old (21.5%). The data indicated a reduction in the rate of death among car riders and pedestrians and an increase in the number of deaths among motorcycle riders. The trend of deaths occurred outside the city had been increasing while the trend of deaths occurred inside the city had been decreasing.
conclusionThe present regulations are only able to reduce a small number of deaths each year. In order to achieve a downward trend in mortality with a steeper pace, it is necessary to design and implement more intelligent standards, not merely the stricter ones.
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