ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2020
Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evaluating the effectiveness of mass drug administration on lymphatic filariasis transmission and assessment of post-mass drug administration surveillance in Nigeria's Federal Capital Territory.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- Lymphatic filariasis transmission 10 years after stopping mass drug administration in the Gomoa west district of Ghana.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025Article
- The effects of variable spatial aggregation on lymphatic filariasis transmission.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Predictive Value of Microfilariae-Based Stop-MDA Thresholds After Triple Drug Therapy With IDA Against Lymphatic Filariasis in Treatment-Naive Indian Settings.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Lymphatic filariasis endgame strategies: Using GEOFIL to model mass drug administration and targeted surveillance and treatment strategies in American Samoa.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Evaluating elimination thresholds and stopping criteria for interventions against the vector-borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, using mathematical modelling.Communications biology · 2023Article
- Comparing antigenaemia- and microfilaraemia as criteria for stopping decisions in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in Africa.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2022Article
- Positive-case follow up for lymphatic filariasis after a transmission assessment survey in Haiti.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Modelling the Impact of Vector Control on Lymphatic Filariasis Programs: Current Approaches and Limitations.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Review
- What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA).PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- When, Who, and How to Sample: Designing Practical Surveillance for 7 Neglected Tropical Diseases as We Approach Elimination.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4-6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success.
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