Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31846500›Full record

ArticleAge and ageing2020

Estimated societal costs of stroke in the UK based on a discrete event simulation.

Anita Patel, Vladislav Berdunov, Zahidul Quayyum, Derek King, Martin Knapp, Raphael Wittenberg

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Age and ageing, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 66 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
66citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

66 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  11. Cost-effectiveness of the ABCStroke pathway in ischaemic stroke care: a UK pilot analysis.European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes · 2026
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6 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Anita PatelAnita Patel Health Economics Consulting Ltd, London, UK.
Vladislav BerdunovAmaris, London, UK.
Zahidul QuayyumJames P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Derek KingCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics & Political Science, London, UK.
Martin KnappCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics & Political Science, London, UK.
Raphael WittenbergCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics & Political Science, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundthere are around 100,000 new stroke cases and over a million people living with its consequences annually in the UK. This has large impacts on health and social care, unpaid carers and lost productivity. We aimed to estimate associated costs.

methodswe estimated 2014/2015 annual mean cost per person and aggregate UK cost of stroke for individuals aged ≥40 from a societal perspective. Health and social care costs in the first and subsequent years after stroke were estimated from discrete event simulation modelling, with probability of progression and length of receipt of different health and social care services obtained from routine registry and audit data. Unpaid care hours and lost productivity were obtained from trial data. UK unit costs were applied to estimate mean costs. Epidemiological estimates of stroke incidence and prevalence were then applied to estimate aggregate costs for the UK.

resultsmean cost of new-onset stroke is £45,409 (95% CI 42,054-48,763) in the first year after stroke and £24,778 (20,234-29,322) in subsequent years. Aggregate societal cost of stroke is £26 billion per year, including £8.6 billion for NHS and social care. The largest component of total cost was unpaid care (61%) and, given high survival, £20.6 billion related to ongoing care.

conclusionthe estimated aggregate cost of stroke substantially exceeds previous UK estimates. Since most of the cost is attributed to unpaid care, interventions aimed at rehabilitation and reducing new and recurrent stroke are likely to yield substantial benefits to carers and cost savings to society.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsFemaleHealth Care CostsHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceSex FactorsSocial WelfareState MedicineStrokeburdencosteconomicolder peoplesimulationstroke

Identifiers

PMID31846500
PMCPMC7047817

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.