ArticleEcology and evolution2019
Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects.
Article in Ecology and evolution, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Combined phylogenetic and geographic data can predict plant-pest interactions with high accuracy.The New phytologist · 2026Article
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- Objective risk assessment of bark and ambrosia beetles non-indigenous to North America.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2025Article
- The first host plant dataset of Curculionidae Scolytinae of the world: miscellaneous tribes (Part 2).Scientific data · 2024Article
- Identifying the generalizable controls on insect associations of native and non-native trees.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Hosts and impacts of elongate hemlock scale (Hemiptera: Diaspididae): A critical review.Frontiers in insect science · 2024Review
- Managing for the unexpected: Building resilient forest landscapes to cope with global change.Global change biology · 2022Article
- Towards a phylogenetic ecology of plant pests and pathogens.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Review
- Negative effects of an allelopathic invader on AM fungal plant species drive community-level responses.Ecology · 2021Article
- Pest pressure relates to similarity of crops and native plants.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- Phylogenetic escape from pests reduces pesticides on some crop plants.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects.Ecology and evolution · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
15 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A long-standing goal of invasion biology is to identify factors driving highly variable impacts of non-native species. Although hypotheses exist that emphasize the role of evolutionary history (e.g., enemy release hypothesis & defense-free space hypothesis), predicting the impact of non-native herbivorous insects has eluded scientists for over a century.Using a census of all 58 non-native conifer-specialist insects in North America, we quantified the contribution of over 25 factors that could affect the impact they have on their novel hosts, including insect traits (fecundity, voltinism, native range, etc.), host traits (shade tolerance, growth rate, wood density, etc.), and evolutionary relationships (between native and novel hosts and insects).We discovered that divergence times between native and novel hosts, the shade and drought tolerance of the novel host, and the presence of a coevolved congener on a shared host, were more predictive of impact than the traits of the invading insect. These factors built upon each other to strengthen our ability to predict the risk of a non-native insect becoming invasive. This research is the first to empirically support historically assumed hypotheses about the importance of evolutionary history as a major driver of impact of non-native herbivorous insects.Our novel, integrated model predicts whether a non-native insect not yet present in North America will have a one in 6.5 to a one in 2,858 chance of causing widespread mortality of a conifer species if established (
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