ArticleBMC palliative care2019
The impact of population ageing on end-of-life care in Scotland: projections of place of death and recommendations for future service provision.
Article in BMC palliative care, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Mutual support between patients and family caregivers in palliative care: A systematic review and narrative synthesis.Palliative medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Levels and Determinants of Place-Of-Death Congruence in Palliative Patients: A Systematic Review.Frontiers in psychology · 2021Pooled it
- Place of Death for People with Life-Limiting Illnesses in Malaysia: Trends (2005-2019) and Projections to 2030.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2026Article
- Estimating the need for palliative care services in Australia by 2042.BMC palliative care · 2026Article
- Bereavement practices within older adult care homes in Scotland: a focus group study.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Mortality in long-term care residents: retrospective national cohort study.BMJ supportive & palliative care · 2025Article
- Developments in public health paramedicine: exploring the professional practice of ambulance clinicians in palliative and end-of-life care in a remote and rural setting.British paramedic journal · 2025Article
- What are the experiences and support needs of district nurses caring for terminally ill people with delirium at home? A qualitative study.BMC palliative care · 2025Article
- Deaths at home during COVID-19 in Scotland: Demographics, multimorbidity, and palliative care needs in population data.International journal of population data science · 2025Article
- Exploring the influence of the impending death discharge tradition on home death rate in Taiwan.Journal of the Chinese Medical Association : JCMA · 2024Article
- Palliative care patients in the emergency medical service: a retrospective cohort study from Finland.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Have increased deaths at home during the pandemic returned to pre-pandemic levels? An analysis of publicly available Scottish death registrations.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2023Article
- Deaths at home, area-based deprivation and the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic: An analysis of mortality data across four nations.Palliative medicine · 2023Article
- Variation in hospital cost trajectories at the end of life by age, multimorbidity and cancer type.International journal of population data science · 2023Article
- Factors influencing adult carer support planning for unpaid caregiving at the end of life in Scotland: Qualitative insights from triangulated interviews and focus groups.Health & social care in the community · 2022Article
- Last Aid Training Online: Participants' and Facilitators' Perceptions from a Mixed-Methods Study in Rural Scotland.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Needs and expectations of family caregivers of cancer patients in palliative care: A study protocol.Frontiers in psychology · 2022Article
- Changes in mortality patterns and place of death during the COVID-19 pandemic: A descriptive analysis of mortality data across four nations.Palliative medicine · 2021Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on care-home mortality and life expectancy in Scotland.Age and ageing · 2021Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundGlobal annual deaths are rising. It is essential to examine where future deaths may occur to facilitate decisions regarding future service provision and resource allocation.
aimsTo project where people will die from 2017 to 2040 in an ageing country with advanced integrated palliative care, and to prioritise recommendations based on these trends.
methodsPopulation-based trend analysis of place of death for people that died in Scotland (2004-2016) and projections using simple linear modelling (2017-2040); Transparent Expert Consultation to prioritise recommendations in response to projections.
resultsDeaths are projected to increase by 15.9% from 56,728 in 2016 (32.8% aged 85+ years) to 65,757 deaths in 2040 (45% aged 85+ years). Between 2004 and 2016, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (19.8-23.4% and 14.5-18.8%), while the proportion of hospital deaths declined (58.0-50.1%). If current trends continue, the numbers of deaths at home and in care homes will increase, and two-thirds will die outside hospital by 2040. To sustain current trends, priorities include: 1) to increase and upskill a community health and social care workforce through education, training and valuing of care work; 2) to build community care capacity through informal carer support and community engagement; 3) to stimulate a realistic public debate on death, dying and sustainable funding.
conclusionTo sustain current trends, health and social care provision in the community needs to grow to support nearly 60% more people at the end-of-life by 2040; otherwise hospital deaths will increase.
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