ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2019
Vaccine-driven virulence evolution: consequences of unbalanced reductions in mortality and transmission and implications for pertussis vaccines.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- From protection to amplification: Imperfect chytridiomycosis prophylaxis increases infections in wild amphibians.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Understanding the traits underlying vaccine-driven virulence evolution in malaria parasites.BMC biology · 2025Article
- Prior exposure to pathogens augments host heterogeneity in susceptibility and has key epidemiological consequences.PLoS pathogens · 2024Article
- Prior exposure to pathogens augments host heterogeneity in susceptibility and has key epidemiological consequences.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions and the emergence of pathogen variants.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2023Article
- Can breeders prevent pathogen adaptation when selecting for increased resistance to infectious diseases?Genetics, selection, evolution : GSE · 2022Article
- Infectious disease in an era of global change.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2022Review
- Which 'imperfect vaccines' encourage the evolution of higher virulence?Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2022Article
- Assessing the risk of vaccine-driven virulence evolution in SARS-CoV-2.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Ecological and Evolutionary Challenges for Wildlife Vaccination.Trends in parasitology · 2020Review
- Evolutionary medical insights into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2020Article
- Development and Validation of aJournal of immunology research · 2020Article
- Vaccine-driven virulence evolution: consequences of unbalanced reductions in mortality and transmission and implications for pertussis vaccines.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Many vaccines have heterogeneous effects across individuals. Additionally, some vaccines do not prevent infection, but reduce disease-associated mortality and transmission. Both of these factors will alter selection pressures on pathogens and thus shape the evolution of pathogen virulence. We use a mathematical modelling framework to show that (i) the balance of how vaccines reduce transmission versus mortality and (ii) individual variability in protection conferred both shape the evolution of pathogen virulence. Epidemiological (burden of disease) and evolutionary (pathogen virulence) outcomes are both worse when vaccines confer smaller reductions in transmission than in mortality. Furthermore, outcomes are modulated by variability in vaccine effects, with increased variability limiting the extent of virulence evolution but in some cases preventing eradication. These findings are pertinent to current concerns about the global resurgence of pertussis and the efficacy of pertussis vaccines, as the two classes of these vaccines may reduce disease symptoms without preventing infection and differ in their ability to reduce transmission. Furthermore, these findings point to the importance of generating precise predictions for virulence evolution in
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