ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2020
Estimating the Natural History of Cervical Carcinogenesis Using Simulation Models: A CISNET Comparative Analysis.
Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
59 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 82 citations in OpenAlex.
- Updated clinical practice guidelines for human papillomavirus vaccination: the Korean Society of Gynecologic Oncology recommendations.Journal of gynecologic oncology · 2026Guideline
- Impact of Cholecalciferol Supplementation on Radiotherapy Outcomes in Advanced Cervical Cancer.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2025Trial
- HPV16/18 antibodies 16-years after single dose of bivalent HPV vaccination: Costa Rica HPV vaccine trial.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2024Trial
- Trends in HPV vaccination among adults aged 27-45 years in the United States.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Estimating the age distribution of disease-causal HPV infection in women with high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in Denmark, Estonia, Norway, Slovenia, and Sweden: A modeling study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Optimal cervical cancer screening strategies for unvaccinated and HPV-vaccinated cohorts in the United States: a comprehensive comparative modeling analysis.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Urban-rural disparities in HPV prevalence and genotype distribution: a large-scale cervical cancer screening study in Xi'an, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Discrete-Event Simulation Modeling Framework for Cancer Interventions and Population Health in R (DESCIPHR): An Open-Source Pipeline.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Age of acquisition of disease-causal human papillomavirus infection to high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) in England.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- A method of estimating cervical cancers prevented by the introduction of national screening in Ireland.European journal of public health · 2026Article
- Single-dose HPV vaccination in the United States - a multi-modeling analysis.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Impact of repeatedly screening negative on cervical cancer risk.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Article
- Medicaid expansion and overall mortality among women with cervical cancer.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2026Article
- Cost and cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer HPV DNA self-sampling: a systematic review.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Age and tumour presentations differ between HPV type 16 positive and other high-risk HPV type-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas in a Swedish cohort of 2000-2022.International journal of cancer · 2025Article
- Assessing the Impact of Methodological Assumptions on Estimated Age of Disease-Causal Human Papillomavirus Infection in US Females.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Optimizing the Harms and Benefits of Cervical Screening in a Partially Vaccinated Population in Ontario, Canada: A Modeling Study.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- Disparities in cervical cancer elimination time frames in the United States: a comparative modeling study.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- Estimating the Age of Disease-causal HPV Infection Based on the Natural History of CIN2+ Among Females in Canada.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- State-level disparities in cervical cancer prevention and outcomes in the United States: a modeling study.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
16 authors at 6 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cervical cancer (CC) is not directly observable, yet the age of HPV acquisition and duration of preclinical disease (dwell time) influences the effectiveness of alternative preventive policies. We performed a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) comparative modeling analysis to characterize the age of acquisition of cancer-causing HPV infections and implied dwell times for distinct phases of cervical carcinogenesis.
methodsUsing four CISNET-cervical models with varying underlying structures but fit to common US epidemiological data, we estimated the age of acquisition of causal HPV infections and dwell times associated with three phases of cancer development: HPV, high-grade precancer, and cancer sojourn time. We stratified these estimates by HPV genotype under both natural history and CC screening scenarios, because screening prevents cancer development that affects the mix of detected cancers.
resultsThe median time from HPV acquisition to cancer detection ranged from 17.5 to 26.0 years across the four models. Three models projected that 50% of unscreened women acquired their causal HPV infection between ages 19 and 23 years, whereas one model projected these infections occurred later (age 34 years). In the context of imperfect compliance with US screening guidelines, the median age of causal infection was 4.4-15.9 years later compared with model projections in the absence of screening.
conclusionsThese validated CISNET-CC models, which reflect some uncertainty in the development of CC, elucidate important drivers of HPV vaccination and CC screening policies and emphasize the value of comparative modeling when evaluating public health policies.
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