Trial reportEndocrine2020
A nomogram for predicting 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Chinese population.
Trial report in Endocrine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with intermediate hyperglycemia: a systematic literature review and external validation study.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2022Pooled it
- Pathway insights and predictive modeling for type 2 diabetes using polygenic risk scores.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- [Construction of a Predictive Model for Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 in Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations Based on the Medical Checkup Data of National Basic Public Health Service].Sichuan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Sichuan University. Medical science edition · 2024Article
- Elevated gamma-glutamyl transferase to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio has a non-linear association with incident diabetes mellitus: A second analysis of a cohort study.Journal of diabetes investigation · 2022Article
- A Prediction Model of the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Individuals with Abdominal Obesity: Insights from the General Population.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2022Article
- New risk score model for identifying individuals at risk for diabetes in southwest China.Preventive medicine reports · 2021Article
- Prediction Model for Screening Patients at Risk of Malnutrition After Gastric Cancer Surgery.Annals of surgical oncology · 2021Article
- Nomogram Model for Screening the Risk of Type II Diabetes in Western Xinjiang, China.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2021Article
- Exploration of the risk factors of essential hypertension with hyperhomocysteinemia: A hospital-based study and nomogram analysis.Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil) · 2021Article
- Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Model for Predicting the 5-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Non-Obese Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2021Article
- Nomogram Predicting the Risk of Progression from Prediabetes to Diabetes After a 3-Year Follow-Up in Chinese Adults.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2021Article
- A prediction nomogram for the 3-year risk of incident diabetes among Chinese adults.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Glycosylated Hemoglobin A1c Improves the Performance of the Nomogram for Predicting the 5-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes.Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeTo develop a nomogram for predicting 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Chinese adults.
methodsThis is a retrospective cohort study from a prospectively collected database. We included a total 32,766 adults free of T2D at baseline with a median follow-up of 3 years. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to identify independent predictors. A nomogram was constructed to predict 5-year incident rate of T2D based on the multivariate analysis results. Harrell's C-indexes and calibration plots were used to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram in both internal and external validations.
resultsThe overall prevalence of T2D was 2.1%. Participants were randomly divided into a training set (n = 21,844) and a validation set (n = 10,922). After multivariate analysis in the training set, age, sex, BMI, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking status, and family history were found as risk predictors and integrated into the nomogram. Harrell's C-indexes were 0.815 (95% CI: 0.797-0.834) and 0.779 (95% CI: 0.747-0.811) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the estimated probability and the actual observation.
conclusionOur nomogram could be a simple and reliable tool for predicting 5-year risk of developing T2D in high-risk Chinese. Through the model, early identifying high-risk individuals is helpful for timely intervention to reduce the incidence of T2D.
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