Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31818332›Full record

ArticleCritical care (London, England)2019

Plasma sTNFR1 and IL8 for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials: a prospective cohort study.

Brian J Anderson, Carolyn S Calfee, Kathleen D Liu, John P Reilly, Kirsten N Kangelaris, Michael G S Shashaty, Aili L Lazaar, Andrew I Bayliffe, Robert J Gallop, Todd A Miano and 11 more

Open access · goldAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Critical care (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.3field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 49 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. What is Outpatient AKI? Insights from the SPRINT AKI Cohort.Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Brian J AndersonDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Spruce Street, 5036 Gates Building, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA. brian.anderson@uphs.upenn.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2426-9683
Carolyn S CalfeeDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Kathleen D LiuDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
John P ReillyDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Spruce Street, 5036 Gates Building, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
Kirsten N KangelarisDivision of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Michael G S ShashatyDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Spruce Street, 5036 Gates Building, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
Aili L LazaarDepartment of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA.
Andrew I BayliffeGlaxoSmithKline R&D, Brentford, UK.
Robert J GallopCenter for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA.
Todd A MianoCenter for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA.
Thomas G DunnDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Spruce Street, 5036 Gates Building, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
Erik JohanssonDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Spruce Street, 5036 Gates Building, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
Jason AbbottDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Alejandra JaureguiDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Thomas DeissDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Kathryn VesselDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Annika BelzerDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Hanjing ZhuoDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Michael A MatthayDivision of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, USA.
Nuala J MeyerDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Spruce Street, 5036 Gates Building, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
Jason D ChristieDivision of Pulmonary, Allergy and Critical Care Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, 3400 Spruce Street, 5036 Gates Building, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
University of California, San Francisco · USUniversity of Pennsylvania · USGlaxoSmithKline (United Kingdom) · GBSan Francisco General Hospital · USWest Chester University · US

Funding

Precision Medicine in the Acute Respiratory Distress SyndromeR35HL140026 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI CALFEE, CAROLYN · 2018 to 2024
$6.8M
Resolution of Clinical Lung InjuryR37HL051856 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MATTHAY, MICHAEL A. · 2006 to 2015
$3.9M
Targeting Angiopoietin-2 in ARDSR01HL137006 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI MEYER, NUALA JENNINGS · 2017 to 2021
$2.5M
Reconsidering the IL-1 axis in sepsis-associated ARDSR01HL137915 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI MEYER, NUALA JENNINGS · 2017 to 2020
$2.1M
Mentored Patient Oriented Research in Lung TransplantationK24HL115354 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI CHRISTIE, JASON D · 2012 to 2021
$1.2M
Neurocognitive Impairment in Acute Respiratory Failure and Shock: Understanding the Role of Neuronal ExcitotoxicityK23HL140482 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI ANDERSON, BRIAN J. · 2018 to 2022
$959k
The Role of ABO Glycosyltransferases in the Acute Respiratory Distress SyndromeK23HL125723 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI REILLY, JOHN PATRICK · 2015 to 2019
$840k
NHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL125723NHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL140482NHLBI NIH HHS K24 HL115354NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL137006NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL137915NHLBI NIH HHS R35 HL140026NHLBI NIH HHS R37 HL051856
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEnrichment strategies improve therapeutic targeting and trial efficiency, but enrichment factors for sepsis trials are lacking. We determined whether concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1), interleukin-8 (IL8), and angiopoietin-2 (Ang2) could identify sepsis patients at higher mortality risk and serve as prognostic enrichment factors.

methodsIn a multicenter prospective cohort study of 400 critically ill septic patients, we derived and validated thresholds for each marker and expressed prognostic enrichment using risk differences (RD) of 30-day mortality as predictive values. We then used decision curve analysis to simulate the prognostic enrichment of each marker and compare different prognostic enrichment strategies. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN

resultsAn admission sTNFR1 concentration > 8861 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 21.6%) and validation (RD 17.8%) populations. Among immunocompetent patients, an IL8 concentration > 94 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 17.7%) and validation (RD 27.0%) populations. An Ang2 level > 9761 pg/ml identified patients at 21.3% and 12.3% increased risk of mortality in the derivation and validation populations, respectively. Using sTNFR1 or IL8 to select high-risk patients improved clinical trial power and efficiency compared to selecting patients with septic shock. Ang2 did not outperform septic shock as an enrichment factor.

conclusionsThresholds for sTNFR1 and IL8 consistently identified sepsis patients with higher mortality risk and may have utility for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials.

Indexed as

PrognosisAgedBiomarkersCohort StudiesFemaleHospital MortalityHumansInterleukin-8MaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesReceptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor, Type IROC CurveSepsisVesicular Transport ProteinsBiomarkersCXCL8 protein, humanInterleukin-8Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor, Type IVesicular Transport ProteinsVPS51 protein, humanAngiopoietin-2BiomarkersInterleukin-8Prognostic enrichmentSepsisTumor necrosis factor receptors

Identifiers

PMID31818332
PMCPMC6902425
OpenAlexW2994440150

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.