ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2019
Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 34 citations in OpenAlex.
- Diagnostic Techniques and Epidemiological Methods for Parasites in Beekeeping: Considerations and Perspectives.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Environmental Conditions and Mite Vectors Shape the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Scrub Typhus in Guangdong Province, Mainland China.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Ecological Risk Assessment and Management of Forest Fires in Tamil Nadu, India: A MaxEnt Model-Based Approach for Strategic Resource Allocation and Fire Mitigation.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025Article
- The Effect of Climate Change on Emergence and Evolution of Zoonotic Diseases in Asia.Zoonoses and public health · 2025Review
- Climate change and its impact on spatial and temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis transmission risk in Nepal.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of scrub typhus in Jiangxi Province.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Exploring the influencing factors of scrub typhus in Gannan region, China, based on spatial regression modelling and geographical detector.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Do Random Forest-Driven Climate Envelope Models Require Variable Selection? A Case Study onInsects · 2025Article
- Habitat Type-Based Assemblage and Distribution Prediction of Small Mammals and Chigger Mites (Acari: Trombiculidae) in Chuncheon City, Republic of Korea.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Ensemble evaluation of potential distribution of Procambarus clarkii using multiple species distribution models.Oecologia · 2024Article
- Epidemiology, clinical characteristics, diagnosis, and complications of scrub typhus infection in Nepal: a systematic review.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2023Review
- Predicting current and future high-risk areas for vectors and reservoirs of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010-2020.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of scrub typhus in Fujian Province, China.Parasites & vectors · 2023Article
- PredictingFrontiers in microbiology · 2023Article
- Co-effects of global climatic dynamics and local climatic factors on scrub typhus in mainland China based on a nine-year time-frequency analysis.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Article
- Artificial Intelligence Models for Zoonotic Pathogens: A Survey.Microorganisms · 2022Review
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 7 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Being a globally emerging mite-borne zoonotic disease, scrub typhus is a serious public health concern in Nepal. Mapping environmental suitability and quantifying the human population under risk of the disease is important for prevention and control efforts. In this study, we model and map the environmental suitability of scrub typhus using the ecological niche approach, machine learning modeling techniques, and report locations of scrub typhus along with several climatic, topographic, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and proximity explanatory variables and estimated population under the risk of disease at a national level. Both MaxEnt and RF technique results reveal robust predictive power with test The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) of above 0.8 and 0.6, respectively. Spatial prediction reveals that environmentally suitable areas of scrub typhus are widely distributed across the country particularly in the low-land Tarai and less elevated river valleys. We found that areas close to agricultural land with gentle slopes have higher suitability of scrub typhus occurrence. Despite several speculations on the association between scrub typhus and proximity to earthquake epicenters, we did not find a significant role of proximity to earthquake epicenters in the distribution of scrub typhus in Nepal. About 43% of the population living in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus are at higher risk of infection, followed by 29% living in suitable areas of moderate-risk, and about 22% living in moderately suitable areas of lower risk. These findings could be useful in selecting priority areas for surveillance and control strategies effectively.
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