Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31808792›Full record

ArticleAge and ageing2020

Projections of care for older people with dementia in England: 2015 to 2040.

Raphael Wittenberg, Bo Hu, Carol Jagger, Andrew Kingston, Martin Knapp, Adelina Comas-Herrera, Derek King, Amritpal Rehill, Sube Banerjee

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Age and ageing, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 67 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
67citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

67 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  11. Personal and Family Perspectives Regarding Neurodegenerative Disorder Risk.Journal of community medicine & public health · 2026
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  19. Small-diffusible aggregates, plaques, tangles, and dynamic equilibria: Untangling Alzheimer's disease.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025
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7 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Raphael WittenbergCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Bo HuCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Carol JaggerPopulation Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
Andrew KingstonPopulation Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
Martin KnappCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Adelina Comas-HerreraCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Derek KingCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Amritpal RehillCare Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Sube BanerjeeFaculty of Health, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe number of older people with dementia and the cost of caring for them, already substantial, are expected to rise due to population ageing.

objectiveThis study makes projections of the number of older people with dementia receiving unpaid care or using care services and associated costs in England.

methodsThe study drew on up-to-date information for England from multiple sources including data from the CFASII study, output from the PACSim dynamic microsimulation model, Office for National Statistics population projections and data from the MODEM cohort study. A simulation model was built to make the projections.

resultsWe project that the number of older people with dementia will more than double in the next 25 years. The number receiving unpaid or formal care is projected to rise by 124%, from 530,000 in 2015 to 1,183,000 in 2040. Total cost of dementia is projected to increase from £23.0 billion in 2015 to £80.1 billion in 2040, and average cost is projected to increase from £35,100 per person per year in 2015 to £58,900 per person per year in 2040. Total and average costs of social care are projected to increase much faster than those of healthcare and unpaid care.

conclusionThe numbers of people with dementia and associated costs of care will rise substantially in the coming decades, unless new treatments enable the progression of the condition to be prevented or slowed. Care and support for people with dementia and their family carers will need to be increased.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessAgedAged, 80 and overDementiaEnglandFemaleForecastingHealth Care CostsHealth ExpendituresHumansMaleModels, Statisticalcostsdementiaprojectionsservices

Identifiers

PMID31808792
PMCPMC7047814

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.