Trial reportScience advances2019
Modeling other minds: Bayesian inference explains human choices in group decision-making.
Trial report in Science advances, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Bayesian perspective on observers' inference of group norms.NPJ science of learning · 2026Article
- Distributionally robust free energy principle for decision-making.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Advantageous and disadvantageous inequality aversion can be taught through learning of others' preferences.eLife · 2025Article
- When Rituals Fail: Rationalization, Bayesianism, and Predictive Processing.Evolutionary anthropology · 2025Review
- Evolving general cooperation with a Bayesian theory of mind.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Human intergroup coordination in a hierarchical multi-agent sensorimotor task arises from concurrent co-optimization.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- An outside individual option increases optimism and facilitates collaboration when groups form flexibly.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Neurocomputational mechanisms involved in adaptation to fluctuating intentions of others.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Collaborative decision making is grounded in representations of other people's competence and effort.Journal of experimental psychology. General · 2023Article
- Casting votes of antecedents play a key role in successful sequential decision-making.PloS one · 2023Article
- A reference-based theory of motivation and effort allocation.Psychonomic bulletin & review · 2022Review
- Different Markov chains modulate visual stimuli processing in a Go-Go experiment in 2D, 3D, and augmented reality.Frontiers in human neuroscience · 2022Article
- Bayesian inference with incomplete knowledge explains perceptual confidence and its deviations from accuracy.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Intra-group decision-making in agent-based models.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A Maximum Entropy Model of Bounded Rational Decision-Making with Prior Beliefs and Market Feedback.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Neural correlates of recursive thinking during interpersonal strategic interactions.Human brain mapping · 2021Article
- Coevolution of actions, personal norms and beliefs about others in social dilemmas.Evolutionary human sciences · 2021Article
- Bayesian Evidence Accumulation on Social Networks.SIAM journal on applied dynamical systems · 2020Article
- Neural computations underlying strategic social decision-making in groups.Nature communications · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
To make decisions in a social context, humans have to predict the behavior of others, an ability that is thought to rely on having a model of other minds known as "theory of mind." Such a model becomes especially complex when the number of people one simultaneously interacts with is large and actions are anonymous. Here, we present results from a group decision-making task known as the volunteer's dilemma and demonstrate that a Bayesian model based on partially observable Markov decision processes outperforms existing models in quantitatively predicting human behavior and outcomes of group interactions. Our results suggest that in decision-making tasks involving large groups with anonymous members, humans use Bayesian inference to model the "mind of the group," making predictions of others' decisions while also simulating the effects of their own actions on the group's dynamics in the future.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.