ReviewAIDS (London, England)2019
Updates to the Spectrum/AIM model for estimating key HIV indicators at national and subnational levels.
Review in AIDS (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
52 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 82 citations in OpenAlex.
- HIV prevalence in transgender women and cisgender men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Pooled it
- Probability of vertical HIV transmission: a systematic review and meta-regression.The lancet. HIV · 2025Pooled it
- Estimating the effect of maternal viral load on perinatal and postnatal HIV transmission: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Lancet (London, England) · 2025Pooled it
- Visualizing stigma and HIV service engagement: a participatory approach using causal loop diagrams.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Investigating strategies to enhance access to HIV services among children in Malawi: A multifaceted research approach, study protocol.PloS one · 2026Article
- 95-95-95 HIV indicators among children younger than 15 years in South Africa: results from the 2017 national HIV prevalence, incidence, behaviour, and communication survey.AIDS research and therapy · 2025Article
- A hybrid simulation model of HIV program interventions: from transmission behavior to macroeconomic impacts.Therapeutic advances in drug safety · 2025Article
- Dynamic models augmented by hierarchical data: an application of estimating HIV epidemics at sub-national level.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2024Article
- Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Lancet (London, England) · 2024Article
- Improved Indicators for Subnational Unmet Antiretroviral Therapy Need in the Health System: Updates to the Naomi Model in 2023.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Methods and Assumptions for Estimating Key HIV Indicators in the UNAIDS Annual Estimates Process.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Beyond the 95s: What happens when uniform program targets are applied across a heterogenous HIV epidemic in Eastern and Southern Africa?PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Differences in Breastfeeding Duration by Maternal HIV Status: A Pooled Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Triangulation of Routine Antenatal HIV Prevalence Data and Adjusted HIV Estimates in Mozambique.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Joint modeling of longitudinal and competing-risk data using cumulative incidence functions for the failure submodels accounting for potential failure cause misclassification through double sampling.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2023Article
- The Effect of HIV Treatment Interruption on Subsequent Immunological Response.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Scaling Up TB Screening and TB Preventive Treatment Globally: Key Actions and Healthcare Service Costs.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Modelling the impact of CD4 testing on mortality from TB and cryptococcal meningitis among patients with advanced HIV disease in nine countries.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
- Cost-effectiveness of broadly neutralizing antibody prophylaxis for HIV-exposed infants in sub-Saharan African settings.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe Spectrum/AIM model is used by national programs and UNAIDS to prepare annual estimates of the status of the HIV epidemic in 170 countries. The model and assumptions are updated regularly under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections in response to new data, studies and program needs. This article describes the most recent updates for the 2018 round of estimates.
methodsNew data on AIDS-related mortality from Europe and Brazil have been used to update mortality rates of those not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Household survey data and new studies of pregnant women, mothers, and children have been used to improve estimates of the number of HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women and pediatric ART initiation. New tools to estimate geographic variation in HIV prevalence have been used to prepare district estimates of key indicators.
resultsThe 2018 version of Spectrum includes: new estimates of non-ART AIDS-related mortality by CD4 count that depend on ART coverage; a procedure to estimate country-specific patterns of HIV incidence by age by fitting to prevalence by age from household surveys; an updated estimate of postpartum transmission with ART started before pregnancy of 0.023% per month; an updated estimate of retention on treatment at delivery of 80% for all women on ART; a somewhat older pattern of ART initiation by age that has 26% of new pediatric patients initiating ART at 10-14 years of age, 18% at 2-4 years of age, and 26% at 5-9 years of age; and a new tool for estimating key HIV indicators at the district level.
conclusionThe new methods and data implemented in the 2018 version of Spectrum allow national programs more flexibility in describing their programs and are intended to improve the estimates of adult mortality and pediatric HIV indicators.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.