Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31804419›Full record

ArticleThe journal of trauma and acute care surgery2020

Regionalization of emergency general surgery operations: A simulation study.

Robert D Becher, Nitin Sukumar, Michael P DeWane, Thomas M Gill, Adrian A Maung, Kevin M Schuster, Marilyn J Stolar, Kimberly A Davis

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The journal of trauma and acute care surgery, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
1.3field-weighted citation impact, top 19% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 22 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  4. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Robert D BecherFrom the Section of General Surgery, Trauma, and Surgical Critical Care, Department of Surgery (R.D.B., M.P.D., A.A.M., K.M.S., K.A.D.), Yale School of Medicine; Yale Center for Analytical Sciences (N.S., M.J.S.), Yale School of Public Health; and Section of Geriatrics, Department of Internal Medicine (T.M.G.), Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut.
Nitin Sukumar
Michael P DeWane
Thomas M Gill
Adrian A Maung
Kevin M Schuster
Marilyn J Stolar
Kimberly A Davis
Yale University · US

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
Yale Study Support Suite (YES3): Dashboard and Web Portal Software Supporting Research Workflow through integrated, customizable REDCap External ModulesP30AG021342 · NIA · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI Denise Esserman · 2002 to 2026
$37.9M
Institutional Career Development CoreKL2TR001862 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI CANTLEY, LLOYD G, EDELMAN, E. JENNIFER · 2016 to 2025
$12.2M
ACADEMIC LEADERSHIP AWARD IN DISABILITY AND DISABLING DISORDERSK07AG043587 · NIA · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GILL, THOMAS MICHAEL · 2013 to 2017
$645k
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR001862NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NIA NIH HHS K07 AG043587NIA NIH HHS P30 AG021342
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIt has been theorized that a tiered, regionalized system of care for emergency general surgery (EGS) patients-akin to regional trauma systems-would translate into significant survival benefits. Yet data to support this supposition are lacking. The aim of this study was to determine the potential number of lives that could be saved by regionalizing EGS care to higher-volume, lower-mortality EGS institutions.

methodsAdult patients who underwent one of 10 common EGS operations were identified in the California Inpatient Database (2010-2011). An algorithm was constructed that "closed" lower-volume, higher-mortality hospitals and referred those patients to higher-volume, lower-mortality institutions ("closure" based on hospital EGS volume-threshold that optimized to 95% probability of survival). Primary outcome was the number of lives saved. Fifty thousand regionalization simulations were completed (5,000 for each operation) employing a bootstrap resampling method to proportionally redistribute patients. Estimates of expected deaths at the higher-volume hospitals were recalculated for every bootstrapped sample.

resultsOf the 165,123 patients who underwent EGS operations over the 2-year period, 17,655 (10.7%) were regionalized to a higher-volume hospital. On average, 128 (48.8%) of lower-volume hospitals were "closed," ranging from 68 (22.0%) hospital closures for appendectomy to 205 (73.2%) for small bowel resection. The simulations demonstrated that EGS regionalization would prevent 9.7% of risk-adjusted EGS deaths, significantly saving lives for every EGS operation: from 30.8 (6.5%) deaths prevented for appendectomy to 122.8 (7.9%) for colectomy. Regionalization prevented 4.6 deaths per 100 EGS patient-transfers, ranging from 1.3 for appendectomy to 8.0 for umbilical hernia repair.

conclusionThis simulation study provides important new insight into the concept of EGS regionalization, suggesting that 1 in 10 risk-adjusted deaths could be prevented by a structured system of EGS care. Future work should expand upon these findings using more complex discrete-event simulation models. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/Care Management, level IV.

Indexed as

Logistic ModelsAdultAlgorithmsCaliforniaEmergency Service, HospitalHealth Facility ClosureHospital MortalityHospital PlanningHospitals, High-VolumeHospitals, Low-VolumeHumansReferral and ConsultationSurgical Procedures, Operative

Identifiers

PMID31804419
PMCPMC7472889
OpenAlexW2993632942

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.