Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31801468›Full record

ArticleBMC nephrology2019

Validation of the kidney failure risk equation for end-stage kidney disease in Southeast Asia.

Yeli Wang, Francis Ngoc Hoang Long Nguyen, John C Allen, Jasmine Quan Lan Lew, Ngiap Chuan Tan, Tazeen H Jafar

Open access · goldAbstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMC nephrology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.5field-weighted citation impact, top 18% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Yeli WangProgram in Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Medical School, 8 College Road, Singapore, Singapore.
Francis Ngoc Hoang Long NguyenHealth Services Research Centre, SingHealth, Singapore, Singapore.
John C AllenCenter for Quantitative Medicine, Office of Clinical Sciences, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.
Jasmine Quan Lan LewHeal Doctors, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Ngiap Chuan TanHealth Services Research Centre, SingHealth, Singapore, Singapore.
Tazeen H JafarProgram in Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Medical School, 8 College Road, Singapore, Singapore. tazeen.jafar@duke-nus.edu.sg.
Duke-NUS Medical School · SGSingHealth · SGDoctors Hospital · USSingHealth Duke-NUS Academic Medical Centre · SG

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPatients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE), which predicts ESKD risk among patients with CKD, has not been validated in primary care clinics in Southeast Asia (SEA). Therefore, we aimed to (1) evaluate the performance of existing KFRE equations, (2) recalibrate KFRE for better predictive precision, and (3) identify optimally feasible KFRE thresholds for nephrologist referral and dialysis planning in SEA.

methodsAll patients with CKD visiting nine primary care clinics from 2010 to 2013 in Singapore were included and applied 4-variable KFRE equations incorporating age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). ESKD onset within two and five years were acquired via linkage to the Singapore Renal Registry. A weighted Brier score (the squared difference between observed vs predicted ESKD risks), bias (the median difference between observed vs predicted ESKD risks) and precision (the interquartile range of the bias) were used to select the best-calibrated KFRE equation.

resultsThe recalibrated KFRE (named Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA) performed better than existing and other recalibrated KFRE equations in terms of having a smaller Brier score (square root: 2.8% vs. 4.0-9.3% at 5 years; 2.0% vs. 6.1-9.1% at 2 years), less bias (2.5% vs. 3.3-5.2% at 5 years; 1.8% vs. 3.2-3.6% at 2 years), and improved precision (0.5% vs. 1.7-5.2% at 5 years; 0.5% vs. 3.8-4.2% at 2 years). Area under ROC curve for the Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA equations were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93 to 0.95) at 5 years and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95 to 0.97) at 2 years. The optimally feasible KFRE thresholds were > 10-16% for 5-year nephrologist referral and > 45% for 2-year dialysis planning. Using the Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA, an estimated 82 and 89% ESKD events were included among 10% of subjects at highest estimated risk of ESKD at 5-year and 2-year, respectively.

conclusionsThe Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA performs better than existing KFREs and warrants implementation in primary care settings in SEA.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overAsia, SoutheasternCohort StudiesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGlomerular Filtration RateHumansKidney Failure, ChronicKidney Function TestsMaleMiddle AgedRenal InsufficiencyReproducibility of ResultsRisk AssessmentChronic kidney diseaseEnd-stage kidney diseaseKidney failure risk equationPredictionSoutheast Asia

Identifiers

PMID31801468
PMCPMC6894117
OpenAlexW2993732182

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.