ArticleNature communications2019
Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort.
Article in Nature communications, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 82 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
82 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 150 citations in OpenAlex.
- Does Engagement in HIV Care Affect Screening, Diagnosis, and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2024Pooled it
- Impact of male circumcision on risk of HIV infection in men in a changing epidemic context - systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2020Pooled it
- Incident HIV among pregnant and breast-feeding women in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.AIDS (London, England) · 2020Pooled it
- Person-centred HIV care and prevention for youth in rural South Africa: preliminary implementation findings from Thetha Nami ngithethe nawe stepped-wedge trial of peer-navigator mobilization into mobile sexual health services.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Trial
- Effect of a Male-Targeted Digital Decision Support Application Aimed at Increasing Linkage to HIV Care Among Men: Findings from the HITS Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial in Rural South Africa.AIDS and behavior · 2025Trial
- Trial
- Impact of family networks on uptake of health interventions: evidence from a community-randomized control trial aimed at increasing HIV testing in South Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Trial
- Resistance Testing for Management of HIV Virologic Failure in Sub-Saharan Africa : An Unblinded Randomized Controlled Trial.Annals of internal medicine · 2021Trial
- Home-Based Intervention to Test and Start (HITS): a community-randomized controlled trial to increase HIV testing uptake among men in rural South Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Trial
- Article
- Evaluating the biomedical and behavioral drivers of HIV incidence decline in adolescent girls and young women in Uganda: A mathematical modeling study.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Linkage of HIV treatment and population-based surveillance records in rural South Africa: the AHRI Unified Data Platform (AUDP).Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Article
- The impact of male circumcision on risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: a household fixed-effects analysis of 279,351 men from 29 countries.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Behavioral HIV-serosurvey reveals clustering of risk factors likely plays a key role in sustaining HIV epidemic in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Epidemiological Patterns of Genital Ulcer Disease and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Among Public Clinic Attendees in Mthatha, Eastern Cape, South Africa.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Trends in population HIV viral suppression: a longitudinal analysis.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- The real-world association between male circumcision and risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: a household fixed-effects analysis of 279,351 men from 29 countries.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- The Confluence of HIV-1 and HIV-2: Implications for Disease Progression and Insights for Therapy.International journal of microbiology · 2025Review
- HIV incidence among non-migrating persons following a household migration event in Uganda.International journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
22 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Over the past decade, there has been a massive scale-up of primary and secondary prevention services to reduce the population-wide incidence of HIV. However, the impact of these services on HIV incidence has not been demonstrated using a prospectively followed, population-based cohort from South Africa-the country with the world's highest rate of new infections. To quantify HIV incidence trends in a hyperendemic population, we tested a cohort of 22,239 uninfected participants over 92,877 person-years of observation. We report a 43% decline in the overall incidence rate between 2012 and 2017, from 4.0 to 2.3 seroconversion events per 100 person-years. Men experienced an earlier and larger incidence decline than women (59% vs. 37% reduction), which is consistent with male circumcision scale-up and higher levels of female antiretroviral therapy coverage. Additional efforts are needed to get more men onto consistent, suppressive treatment so that new HIV infections can be reduced among women.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.