ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2020
Estimates of the global population of children who are HIV-exposed and uninfected, 2000-18: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 117 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
117 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 190 citations in OpenAlex.
- Incidence and predictors of attrition among children on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ open · 2025Pooled it
- Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis for children who are HIV-exposed and uninfected: a systematic review.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Pooled it
- HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children: A Systematic Review on Psychological Well-Being and Association with School Performances in Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Pooled it
- Brain Structure of South African Children Born to Mothers on Dolutegravir Versus Efavirenz-Based Antiretroviral Therapy.Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society · 2026Trial
- Trial
- Single and two-dose typhoid conjugate vaccine safety and immunogenicity in HIV-exposed uninfected and HIV-unexposed uninfected Malawian children.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Trial
- Growth, physical, and cognitive function in children who are born HIV-free: School-age follow-up of a cluster-randomised trial in rural Zimbabwe.PLoS medicine · 2024Trial
- Lower Insulin Sensitivity Through 36 Months of Life With in Utero HIV and Antiretroviral Exposure in Botswana: Results From the Tshilo Dikotla Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Trial
- Lower Insulin Sensitivity in Newborns With In Utero HIV and Antiretroviral Exposure Who Are Uninfected in Botswana.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2022Trial
- Vitamin D3 supplementation during pregnancy and lactation for women living with HIV in Tanzania: A randomized controlled trial.PLoS medicine · 2022Trial
- In-utero HIV exposure and postnatal growth to 8 years of age: a prospective cohort study in the Western Cape, South Africa.The Lancet. Child & adolescent health · 2026Article
- CHildren of the Cohort Study (CHOC): Exploring parenting desire among people living with HIV in Switzerland.HIV medicine · 2026Article
- Association between infant feeding practices and infant growth by maternal HIV and antiretroviral therapy status: a prospective study in Cape Town, South Africa.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2026Article
- Infectious-cause hospitalisation in a province-wide cohort of children with antenatal HIV exposure compared to children without HIV exposure.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Article
- Hearing Assessment in HIV-Exposed-Uninfected Infants.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Lower working memory and processing speed among children and youth exposed to HIV.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Article
- Autism outcomes and neurobehavioural markers in young children born to mothers with HIV in Kenya: a protocol for the Alama project.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Persistent neuroimmune alterations in children who are HIV-exposed but uninfected at age 6-7 years: Associations with language development in a South African birth cohort.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Systemic Inflammation and Growth in Children Born to Mothers With and Without HIV in Rural Zimbabwe.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Article
57 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundChildren who are HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) have higher morbidity and mortality than children who are HIV-unexposed and uninfected despite safer breastfeeding and improved maternal health with maternal antiretroviral therapy. We present the first global estimates of the population of children who are HEU (aged 0-14 years) and the geographical and temporal trends in HIV high-burden countries between 2000 and 2018.
methodsThe Spectrum AIDS Impact Module developed by Avenir Health, UNAIDS, and partners is used to estimate key HIV epidemic indicators from mathematical models. We used 2019 UNAIDS global estimates of children (aged 0-14 years) who are HEU generated by Spectrum and 2017 UN Population Division estimates of the number of all children in each region or country to estimate the regional or national prevalence of children who were HEU, the regional or national contribution of children who were HEU to the global population of children who were HEU, and the proportion of children who were HEU and exposed to antiretrovirals for six UNAIDS regions and 21 HIV high-burden countries in 2018. We also estimated the percentage change in the global population of children who were HEU between 2000 and 2018.
findingsIn 2018, there were an estimated 14·8 million (lower estimate 11·1-upper estimate 18·3) children who were HEU, 13·2 million (9·8-16·3; 90%) of whom resided in sub-Saharan Africa and 760 000 (640 000-970 000; 5%) of whom resided in the Asia and Pacific region. Five countries accounted for 50% of all 14·8 million children who were HEU globally: South Africa (3·5 million [23·8%]), Uganda (1·1 million [7·5%]), Mozambique (1·0 million [6·6%]), Tanzania (910 000 [6·1%]); and Nigeria (880 000 [6·0%]). In five southern African countries, the prevalence of children who were HEU exceeded 15% of the general child population: eSwatini (32·4%), Botswana (27·4%), South Africa (21·6%), Lesotho (21·1%), and Namibia (16·4%).
interpretationThe global population of children who are HEU is substantial, requiring a coordinated strategy to reduce HIV exposure in children and ensure optimal health and wellbeing of children who are HEU and their families. Future research and programmatic funding investments must be aligned with the geographical distribution of children who are HEU.
fundingNational Institutes of Health, International AIDS Society.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.