Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31787412›Full record

ReviewVaccine2020

Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: A review of recent applications.

F T Cutts, E Dansereau, M J Ferrari, M Hanson, K A McCarthy, C J E Metcalf, S Takahashi, A J Tatem, N Thakkar, S Truelove and 3 more

Open access · hybridAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Vaccine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed
2.4field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 48 citations in OpenAlex.

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  19. The Development and Distribution of the COVID-19 Vaccine.American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 8 institutions in 2 countries.

F T CuttsDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: felicity.cutts@lshtm.ac.uk.
E DansereauVaccine Delivery, Global Development, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
M J FerrariCenter for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
M HansonVaccine Delivery, Global Development, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
K A McCarthyInstitute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA 98005, USA.
C J E MetcalfDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
S TakahashiDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
A J TatemWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
N ThakkarInstitute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA 98005, USA.
S TrueloveDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
E UtaziWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
A WesolowskiDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
A K WinterDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Johns Hopkins University · USBellevue Hospital Center · USGates Foundation · USUniversity of Southampton · GBLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBPennsylvania State University · USPrinceton University · USUniversity of California, San Francisco · US

Funding

Transmission ProjectU19AI089674 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Joaniter Immaculate Nankabirwa · 2010 to 2026
$29.3M
Disease Emergence and Elimination: Using Mobility Data to Inform Spatial Disease DynamicsDP2LM013102 · NLM · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WESOLOWSKI, AMY · 2018 to 2018
$2.5M
NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI089674NLM NIH HHS DP2 LM013102Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

After many decades of vaccination, measles epidemiology varies greatly between and within countries. National immunization programs are therefore encouraged to conduct regular situation analyses and to leverage models to adapt interventions to local needs. Here, we review applications of models to develop locally tailored interventions to support control and elimination efforts. In general, statistical and semi-mechanistic transmission models can be used to synthesize information from vaccination coverage, measles incidence, demographic, and/or serological data, offering a means to estimate the spatial and age-specific distribution of measles susceptibility. These estimates complete the picture provided by vaccination coverage alone, by accounting for natural immunity. Dynamic transmission models can then be used to evaluate the relative impact of candidate interventions for measles control and elimination and the expected future epidemiology. In most countries, models predict substantial numbers of susceptible individuals outside the age range of routine vaccination, which affects outbreak risk and necessitates additional intervention to achieve elimination. More effective use of models to inform both vaccination program planning and evaluation requires the development of training to enhance broader understanding of models and where feasible, building capacity for modelling in-country, pipelines for rapid evaluation of model predictions using surveillance data, and clear protocols for incorporating model results into decision-making.

Indexed as

Developing CountriesDisease EradicationImmunization ProgramsMeaslesHumansMeasles VaccineModels, TheoreticalVaccination CoverageMeasles VaccineEliminationEpidemiologyMathematical modelsMeaslesMeasles vaccinationRubella

Identifiers

PMID31787412
PMCPMC6996156
OpenAlexW2990515756

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.