ArticleBMC infectious diseases2019
Mathematical modelling for antibiotic resistance control policy: do we know enough?
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Economic Evaluation of Interventions to Reduce Antimicrobial Resistance: A Systematic Literature Review of Methods.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Pooled it
- Prevention of antimicrobial prescribing among infants following maternal vaccination against respiratory syncytial virus.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Trial
- Modelling the role of the microbiome in antimicrobial resistance across scales.Nature microbiology · 2026Review
- Molecular insights into antimicrobial resistance in human bacterial pathogens: mechanisms, resistance genes, and translational diagnostic applications.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Review
- Optimal Multi-Drug Therapies for Antimicrobial Resistance with Horizontal Transfer.Journal of optimization theory and applications · 2026Article
- One Health antimicrobial resistance modelling: from science to policy.Science in One Health · 2026Review
- Inferring asymptomatic carriers of antimicrobial-resistant organisms in hospitals using genomic, microbiological and patient mobility data.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Assessing the Value of New Antimicrobials: Evaluations of Cefiderocol and Ceftazidime-Avibactam to Inform Delinked Payments by the NHS in England.Applied health economics and health policy · 2025Article
- Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats.Life science alliance · 2024Review
- Modelling the implementation of narrow versus broader spectrum antibiotics in the empiric treatment of E. coli bacteraemia.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Contagious acquisition of antimicrobial resistance is critical for explaining emergence in western Canadian feedlots-insights from an agent-based modelling tool.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- Transmission of drug-resistant bacteria in a hospital-community model stratified by patient risk.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Challenges in Forecasting Antimicrobial Resistance.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Review
- The potential of genomics for infectious disease forecasting.Nature microbiology · 2022Review
- The Role of the Environment in Dynamics of Antibiotic Resistance in Humans and Animals: A Modelling Study.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Characterization of symbiotic and nitrogen fixing bacteria.AMB Express · 2022Review
- Uses of mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of mass drug administration of antibiotics on antimicrobial resistance within and between communities.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Review
- From Pathophysiological Hypotheses to Case-Control Study Design: Resistance from Antibiotic Exposure in Community-Onset Infections.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Global research activity on mathematical modeling of transmission and control of 23 selected infectious disease outbreak.Globalization and health · 2022Article
- Evaluation of the Impact of Antimicrobial Use Protocols in Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus-Infected Swine on Phenotypic Antimicrobial Resistance Patterns.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
19 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAntibiotics remain the cornerstone of modern medicine. Yet there exists an inherent dilemma in their use: we are able to prevent harm by administering antibiotic treatment as necessary to both humans and animals, but we must be mindful of limiting the spread of resistance and safeguarding the efficacy of antibiotics for current and future generations. Policies that strike the right balance must be informed by a transparent rationale that relies on a robust evidence base. MAIN TEXT: One way to generate the evidence base needed to inform policies for managing antibiotic resistance is by using mathematical models. These models can distil the key drivers of the dynamics of resistance transmission from complex infection and evolutionary processes, as well as predict likely responses to policy change in silico. Here, we ask whether we know enough about antibiotic resistance for mathematical modelling to robustly and effectively inform policy. We consider in turn the challenges associated with capturing antibiotic resistance evolution using mathematical models, and with translating mathematical modelling evidence into policy.
conclusionsWe suggest that in spite of promising advances, we lack a complete understanding of key principles. From this we advocate for priority areas of future empirical and theoretical research.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.