Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31783799›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2019

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of leprosy in Uganda, 2012-2016: a retrospective analysis of public health surveillance data.

Freda Loy Aceng, Herman-Joseph Kawuma, Robert Majwala, Maureen Lamunu, Alex Riolexus Ario, Frank Mugabe Rwabinumi, Julie R Harris, Bao-Ping Zhu

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.3field-weighted citation impact, top 20% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Article
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  5. Article
  6. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Freda Loy AcengUganda Public Health Fellowship Program, P.O. Box 7072, Kampala, Uganda. faceng@musph.ac.ug.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3029-8947
Herman-Joseph KawumaNational Tuberculosis and Leprosy Program, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Robert MajwalaUganda Public Health Fellowship Program, P.O. Box 7072, Kampala, Uganda.
Maureen LamunuNational Tuberculosis and Leprosy Program, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Alex Riolexus ArioUganda Public Health Fellowship Program, P.O. Box 7072, Kampala, Uganda.
Frank Mugabe RwabinumiNational Tuberculosis and Leprosy Program, Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Julie R HarrisWorkforce and Institute Development Branch, Division of Global Health Protection, Center for Global Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA.
Bao-Ping ZhuUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kampala, Uganda.
African Palliative Care Association · UGCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USMinistry of Health · UG

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLeprosy is a neglected disease that poses a significant challenge to public health in Uganda. The disease is endemic in Uganda, with 40% of the districts in the country affected in 2016, when 42 out of 112 districts notified the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Program (NTLP) of at least one case of leprosy. We determined the spatial and temporal trends of leprosy in Uganda during 2012-2016 to inform control measures.

methodsWe analyzed quarterly leprosy case-finding data, reported from districts to the Uganda National Leprosy Surveillance system (managed by NTLP) during 2012-2016. We calculated new case detection by reporting district and administrative regions of treatment during this period. New case detection was defined as new leprosy cases diagnosed by the Uganda health services divided by regional population; population estimates were based on 2014 census data. We used logistic regression analysis in Epi-Info version 7.2.0 to determine temporal trends. Population estimates were based on 2014 census data. We used QGIS software to draw choropleth maps showing leprosy case detection rates, assumed to approximate the new case detection rates, per 100,000 population.

resultsDuring 2012-2016, there was 7% annual decrease in reported leprosy cases in Uganda each year (p = 0.0001), largely driven by declines in the eastern (14%/year, p = 0.0008) and central (11%/year, p = 0.03) regions. Declines in reported cases in the western (9%/year, p = 0.12) and northern (4%/year, p = 0.16) regions were not significant. The combined new case detection rates from 2012 to 2016 for the ten most-affected districts showed that 70% were from the northern region, 20% from the eastern, 10% from the western and 10% from the central regions.

conclusionThere was a decreasing trend in leprosy new case detection in Uganda during 2012-2016; however, the declining trends were not consistent in all regions. The Northern region consistently identified more leprosy cases compared to the other regions. We recommend evaluation of the leprosy surveillance system to ascertain the leprosy situation.

Indexed as

Databases, FactualHumansLeprosyLogistic ModelsPublic Health SurveillanceRetrospective StudiesSpatio-Temporal AnalysisUgandaEpidemiologyLeprosySpatialTemporalTrendsUganda

Identifiers

PMID31783799
PMCPMC6884789
OpenAlexW2990688298

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.