Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31776366›Full record

Observational studyScientific reports2019

Machine learning-based dynamic mortality prediction after traumatic brain injury.

Rahul Raj, Teemu Luostarinen, Eetu Pursiainen, Jussi P Posti, Riikka S K Takala, Stepani Bendel, Teijo Konttila, Miikka Korja

Abstract readMulticenter StudyObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Scientific reports, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 55 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
55citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

55 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  15. Machine Learning Approaches to Prognostication in Traumatic Brain Injury.Current neurology and neuroscience reports · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Rahul RajDepartment of Neurosurgery, Helsinki University Hospital and University of Helsinki, Topeliuksenkatu 5, PB 266, 00029 HUS, Helsinki, Finland. rahul.raj@hus.fi.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4243-9591
Teemu LuostarinenDivision of Anesthesiology, Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Helsinki University Hospital and University of Helsinki, Topeliuksenkatu 5, PB 266, 00029 HUS, Helsinki, Finland.
Eetu PursiainenData Scientist, Analytics and AI Development Services, HUS IT Management, Helsinki University Hospital, Haartmaninkatu 4, PB 340, 00029 HUS, Helsinki, Finland.
Jussi P PostiDivision of Clinical Neurosciences, Department of Neurosurgery, and Turku Brain Injury Centre, Turku University Hospital and University of Turku, Hämeentie 11, 20521, Turku, Finland.
Riikka S K TakalaPerioperative Services, Intensive Care Medicine and Pain Management, Turku University Hospital and University of Turku, Hämeentie 11, 20521, Turku, Finland.
Stepani BendelDivision of Intensive Care, Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Kuopio University Hospital, Puijonlaaksontie 2, 70210, Kuopio, Finland.
Teijo KonttilaData Scientist, Analytics and AI Development Services, HUS IT Management, Helsinki University Hospital, Haartmaninkatu 4, PB 340, 00029 HUS, Helsinki, Finland.
Miikka KorjaDepartment of Neurosurgery, Helsinki University Hospital and University of Helsinki, Topeliuksenkatu 5, PB 266, 00029 HUS, Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4463-6954

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Our aim was to create simple and largely scalable machine learning-based algorithms that could predict mortality in a real-time fashion during intensive care after traumatic brain injury. We performed an observational multicenter study including adult TBI patients that were monitored for intracranial pressure (ICP) for at least 24 h in three ICUs. We used machine learning-based logistic regression modeling to create two algorithms (based on ICP, mean arterial pressure [MAP], cerebral perfusion pressure [CPP] and Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS]) to predict 30-day mortality. We used a stratified cross-validation technique for internal validation. Of 472 included patients, 92 patients (19%) died within 30 days. Following cross-validation, the ICP-MAP-CPP algorithm's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.74) on day 1 to 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.87) on day 5. The ICP-MAP-CPP-GCS algorithm's AUC increased from 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.78) on day 1 to 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90) on day 5. Algorithm misclassification was seen among patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy. In conclusion, we present a new concept of dynamic prognostication for patients with TBI treated in the ICU. Our simple algorithms, based on only three and four main variables, discriminated between survivors and non-survivors with accuracies up to 81% and 84%. These open-sourced simple algorithms can likely be further developed, also in low and middle-income countries.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAdultAgedBrain Injuries, TraumaticCerebrovascular CirculationFemaleGlasgow Coma ScaleHumansIntensive Care UnitsIntracranial PressureLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisROC Curve

Identifiers

PMID31776366
PMCPMC6881446

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.