Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31773729›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of cancer2020

Testicular cancer incidence predictions in Europe 2010-2035: A rising burden despite population ageing.

Ariana Znaor, Niels E Skakkebaek, Ewa Rajpert-De Meyts, Mathieu Laversanne, Tomislav Kuliš, Jason Gurney, Diana Sarfati, Katherine A McGlynn, Freddie Bray

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of cancer, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
65citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

65 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Association Study between Polymorphisms in DNA Methylation-Related Genes and Testicular Germ Cell Tumor Risk.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2022
    Pooled it
  7. Cancer incidence and mortality trends from 2007 to 2021 in Milan.European journal of cancer prevention : the official journal of the European Cancer Prevention Organisation (ECP) · 2026
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Incidence, mortality and survival of testicular germ cell cancer in the province of Tarragona (Spain), 1980-2018.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Epidemiological patterns, temporal trends in management and long-term outcomes in testicular cancer: a 30-year single center experience.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Review

5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Ariana ZnaorSection of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.ORCID 0000-0002-5849-4782
Niels E SkakkebaekDepartment of Growth & Reproduction, Copenhagen University Hospital (Ringshospitalet), Copenhagen, Denmark.
Ewa Rajpert-De MeytsDepartment of Growth & Reproduction, Copenhagen University Hospital (Ringshospitalet), Copenhagen, Denmark.
Mathieu LaversanneSection of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Tomislav KulišDepartment of Urology, University Hospital Centre Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.
Jason GurneyDepartment of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
Diana SarfatiDepartment of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0002-2425-4086
Katherine A McGlynnDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland.ORCID 0000-0003-2329-9933
Freddie BraySection of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.ORCID 0000-0002-3248-7787

Funding

Hormone-Related CancersZIACP010126 · NCI · DIVISION OF CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGY AND GENETICS · PI GIERACH, GRETCHEN · 2009 to 2025
$103.5M
Intramural NIH HHS ZIA CP010126World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among young men of European ancestry, with about one-third of all cases occurring in Europe. With the historically increasing trends in some high-incidence populations reported to have stabilised in recent years, we aimed to assess recent trends and predict the future testicular cancer incidence burden across Europe. We extracted testicular cancer (ICD-10 C62) incidence data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VII-XI and complemented this with data published by registries from 28 European countries. We predicted cancer incidence rates and the number of incident cases in Europe in the year 2035 using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Testicular cancer incidence rates will increase in 21 out of 28 countries over the period 2010-2035, with trends attenuating in the high-incidence populations of Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Austria. Although population ageing would be expected to reduce the number of cases, this demographic effect is outweighed by increasing risk, leading to an overall increase in the number of cases by 2035 in Europe, and by region (21, 13 and 32% in Northern, Western and Eastern Europe, respectively). Declines are however predicted in Italy and Spain, amounting to 12% less cases in 2035 in Southern Europe overall. In conclusion, the burden of testicular cancer incidence in Europe will continue to increase, particularly in historically lower-risk countries. The largest increase in the number of testicular cancer patients is predicted in Eastern Europe, where survival is lower, reinforcing the need to ensure the provision of effective treatment across Europe.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAge DistributionAgingChildChild, PreschoolEuropeHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMiddle AgedRegistriesTesticular NeoplasmsYoung Adultage-period-cohortEuropeincidencepredictionstesticular cancer

Identifiers

PMID31773729
PMCPMC8612086

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.