ArticleEmergency medicine journal : EMJ2020
The impact of delayed transfers of care on emergency departments: common sense arguments, evidence and confounding.
Article in Emergency medicine journal : EMJ, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Emergency department crowding in the modern era: a systematic review (2018-2025).Clinical and experimental emergency medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Overuse of Health Care in the Emergency Services in Chile.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesThere have been claims that Delayed Transfers of Care (DTOCs) of inpatients to home or a less acute setting are related to Emergency Department (ED) crowding. In particular DTOCs were associated with breaches of the UK 4-hour waiting time target in a previously published analysis. However, the analysis has major limitations by not adjusting for the longitudinal trend of the data. The aim of this work is to investigate whether the proposition that DTOCs impact the 4-hour target requires further research.
methodEstimation of an association between two or more variables that are measured over time requires specialised statistical methods. In this study, we performed two separate analyses. First, we created two sets of artificial data with no correlation. We then added an upward trend over time and again assessed for correlation. Second, we reproduced the simple linear regression of the original study using NHS England open data of English trusts between 2010 and 2016, assessing correlation of numbers of DTOCs and ED breaches of the 4-hour target. We then reanalysed the same data using standard time series methods to remove the trend before estimating an association.
resultsAfter introducing upward trends into the uncorrelated artificial data the correlation between the two data sets increased (R
conclusionOur reanalysis found weak correlation between numbers of DTOCs and ED 4-hour target breaches. Our study does
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