Trial reportPsychological medicine2021
Precision medicine for long-term depression outcomes using the Personalized Advantage Index approach: cognitive therapy or interpersonal psychotherapy?
Trial report in Psychological medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 72 citations in OpenAlex.
- AI-Driven Mental Health Support for Caregivers of Individuals With Alzheimer Disease: Systematic Literature Review and Development of a Conceptual Framework.JMIR mental health · 2026Pooled it
- Next-Generation Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Depression: Integrating Digital Tools, Teletherapy, and Personalization for Enhanced Mental Health Outcomes.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Pooled it
- Artificial intelligence in mental health care: a systematic review of diagnosis, monitoring, and intervention applications.Psychological medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Machine learning approaches in the therapeutic outcome prediction in major depressive disorder: a systematic review.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Pooled it
- Exploring alternative approaches to precision medicine through genomics and artificial intelligence - a systematic review.Frontiers in medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Moderators of LGBQ-affirmative cognitive behavioral therapy: ESTEEM is especially effective among Black and Latino sexual minority men.Journal of consulting and clinical psychology · 2023Trial
- Trial
- Mechanisms of change and heterogeneous treatment effects in psychodynamic and cognitive behavioural therapy for patients with depressive disorder: a randomized controlled trial.BMC psychology · 2021Trial
- What Is Precision Psychotherapy?The Journal of medicine and philosophy · 2026Article
- Targeting mechanisms of change as a path to precision psychotherapy for community settings.Psychotherapy research : journal of the Society for Psychotherapy Research · 2026Article
- Personalized machine learning guided intervention for optimizing lifestyle behaviors in depression: a pilot study.NPP - digital psychiatry and neuroscience · 2026Article
- Positive psychology 4.0: a science of consequence for a world that can no longer wait.Frontiers in psychology · 2026Article
- Protocol for a randomized trial to predict the efficacy of cognitive and behavioral interventions for symptoms of depression.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Article
- Predicting the outcome of psychological treatments for borderline personality disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder: a machine learning approach to predict long-term outcome of Narrative Exposure Therapy vs. Dialectical Behavioral Therapy based treatment.European journal of psychotraumatology · 2025Article
- To Use or Not to Use: Exploring Therapists' Experiences with Pre-Treatment EMA-Based Personalized Feedback in the TheraNet Project.Administration and policy in mental health · 2025Article
- Hierarchical taxonomy of psychopathology and personalized mental health treatment selection.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2025Review
- Moving Beyond One-Size-Fits-All: Charting a Path to Personalized Nonpharmacological and Noninvasive Chronic Pain Management.Journal of pain research · 2025Article
- Early Attrition Prediction for Web-Based Interpretation Bias Modification to Reduce Anxious Thinking: A Machine Learning Study.JMIR mental health · 2024Article
- Estimating Optimal Treatment Rule for Major Depressive Disorder Using Penalized Regression Method.Oman medical journal · 2024Article
- A Tutorial Introduction to Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation with Meta-learners.Administration and policy in mental health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPsychotherapies for depression are equally effective on average, but individual responses vary widely. Outcomes can be improved by optimizing treatment selection using multivariate prediction models. A promising approach is the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI) that predicts the optimal treatment for a given individual and the magnitude of the advantage. The current study aimed to extend the PAI to long-term depression outcomes after acute-phase psychotherapy.
methodsData come from a randomized trial comparing cognitive therapy (CT, n = 76) and interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT, n = 75) for major depressive disorder (MDD). Primary outcome was depression severity, as assessed by the BDI-II, during 17-month follow-up. First, predictors and moderators were selected from 38 pre-treatment variables using a two-step machine learning approach. Second, predictors and moderators were combined into a final model, from which PAI predictions were computed with cross-validation. Long-term PAI predictions were then compared to actual follow-up outcomes and post-treatment PAI predictions.
resultsOne predictor (parental alcohol abuse) and two moderators (recent life events; childhood maltreatment) were identified. Individuals assigned to their PAI-indicated treatment had lower follow-up depression severity compared to those assigned to their PAI-non-indicated treatment. This difference was significant in two subsets of the overall sample: those whose PAI score was in the upper 60%, and those whose PAI indicated CT, irrespective of magnitude. Long-term predictions did not overlap substantially with predictions for acute benefit.
conclusionsIf replicated, long-term PAI predictions could enhance precision medicine by selecting the optimal treatment for a given depressed individual over the long term.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.