Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31752856›Full record

ArticleBMC health services research2019

Development and validation of a predictive model for American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status.

Seshadri C Mudumbai, Suzann Pershing, Thomas Bowe, Robin N Kamal, Erika D Sears, Andrea K Finlay, Dan Eisenberg, Mary T Hawn, Yingjie Weng, Amber W Trickey and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC health services research, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

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  9. Comparative study ofScientific reports · 2024
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  11. Recurrence After Operated Adhesive Small Bowel Obstruction: Development and Validation of a Predictive Model.Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract · 2023
    Article
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  15. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Seshadri C MudumbaiAnesthesiology and Perioperative Care Service, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 3801 Miranda Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, 94402, USA. mudumbai@stanford.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8486-9966
Suzann PershingCenter for Innovation to Implementation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 795 Willow Road (152-MPD), Menlo Park, California, 94025, USA.
Thomas BoweCenter for Innovation to Implementation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 795 Willow Road (152-MPD), Menlo Park, California, 94025, USA.
Robin N KamalCenter for Innovation to Implementation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 795 Willow Road (152-MPD), Menlo Park, California, 94025, USA.
Erika D SearsDepartment of Surgery, Section of Plastic Surgery at the University of Michigan, 2101 Taubman Center 1500 E. Medical Center Drive, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA.
Andrea K FinlayCenter for Innovation to Implementation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 795 Willow Road (152-MPD), Menlo Park, California, 94025, USA.
Dan EisenbergCenter for Innovation to Implementation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 795 Willow Road (152-MPD), Menlo Park, California, 94025, USA.
Mary T HawnCenter for Innovation to Implementation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 795 Willow Road (152-MPD), Menlo Park, California, 94025, USA.
Yingjie WengDepartment of Surgery Surgery Policy Improvement Research and Education (S-SPIRE) Center, Stanford University School of Medicine, 291 Campus Drive, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Amber W TrickeyDepartment of Surgery Surgery Policy Improvement Research and Education (S-SPIRE) Center, Stanford University School of Medicine, 291 Campus Drive, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Edward R MarianoAnesthesiology and Perioperative Care Service, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 3801 Miranda Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, 94402, USA.
Alex H S HarrisCenter for Innovation to Implementation, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, 795 Willow Road (152-MPD), Menlo Park, California, 94025, USA.

Funding

Stanford Center for Clinical & Translational Education and Research (Spectrum)UL1TR003142 · NCATS · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI O'HARA, RUTH M · 2019 to 2023
$45.0M
HSRD VA RCS 14-232NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR003142U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs IIR 16-216; RCS14-232
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification system was developed to categorize the fitness of patients before surgery. Increasingly, the ASA-PS has been applied to other uses including justification of inpatient admission. Our objectives were to develop and cross-validate a statistical model for predicting ASA-PS; and 2) assess the concurrent and predictive validity of the model by assessing associations between model-derived ASA-PS, observed ASA-PS, and a diverse set of 30-day outcomes.

methodsUsing the 2014 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data File, we developed and internally cross-validated multinomial regression models to predict ASA-PS using preoperative NSQIP data. Accuracy was assessed with C-Statistics and calibration plots. We assessed both concurrent and predictive validity of model-derived ASA-PS relative to observed ASA-PS and 30-day outcomes. To aid further research and use of the ASA-PS model, we implemented it into an online calculator.

resultsOf the 566,797 elective procedures in the final analytic dataset, 8.9% were ASA-PS 1, 48.9% were ASA-PS 2, 39.1% were ASA-PS 3, and 3.2% were ASA-PS 4. The accuracy of the 21-variable model to predict ASA-PS was C = 0.77 +/- 0.0025. The model-derived ASA-PS had stronger association with key indicators of preoperative status including comorbidities and higher BMI (concurrent validity) compared to observed ASA-PS, but less strong associations with postoperative complications (predictive validity). The online ASA-PS calculator may be accessed at https://s-spire-clintools.shinyapps.io/ASA_PS_Estimator/

conclusionsModel-derived ASA-PS better tracked key indicators of preoperative status compared to observed ASA-PS. The ability to have an electronically derived measure of ASA-PS can potentially be useful in research, quality measurement, and clinical applications.

Indexed as

Health Status IndicatorsModels, StatisticalSurgical Procedures, OperativeAnesthesiologyHumansReproducibility of ResultsSocieties, MedicalUnited StatesAnesthesiology/methodsClinical prediction ruleHealth statusOutcome assessment (health care)Reliability and validity

Identifiers

PMID31752856
PMCPMC6868867

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.