Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31751471›Full record

ArticleBlood advances2019

Using a machine learning algorithm to predict acute graft-versus-host disease following allogeneic transplantation.

Yasuyuki Arai, Tadakazu Kondo, Kyoko Fuse, Yasuhiko Shibasaki, Masayoshi Masuko, Junichi Sugita, Takanori Teshima, Naoyuki Uchida, Takahiro Fukuda, Kazuhiko Kakihana and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Blood advances, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  14. Modern-Era Challenges in the Clinical Management of Graft-Versus-Host Disease.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Yasuyuki AraiDepartment of Transfusion Medicine and Cell Therapy and.
Tadakazu KondoDepartment of Hematology and Oncology, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Kyoko FuseDepartment of Hematology, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Niigata University Faculty of Medicine, Niigata, Japan.
Yasuhiko ShibasakiDepartment of Hematology, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Niigata University Faculty of Medicine, Niigata, Japan.
Masayoshi MasukoDepartment of Hematology, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Niigata University Faculty of Medicine, Niigata, Japan.
Junichi SugitaDepartment of Hematology, Hokkaido University Hospital, Hokkaido, Japan.
Takanori TeshimaDepartment of Hematology, Hokkaido University Hospital, Hokkaido, Japan.
Naoyuki UchidaDepartment of Hematology, Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid Associations, Toranomon Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Takahiro FukudaDepartment of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation, National Cancer Center Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Kazuhiko KakihanaHematology Division, Tokyo Metropolitan Cancer and Infectious Diseases Center, Komagome Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Yukiyasu OzawaDepartment of Hematology, Japanese Red Cross Nagoya First Hospital, Aichi, Japan.
Tetsuya EtoDepartment of Hematology, Hamanomachi Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan.
Masatsugu TanakaDepartment of Hematology, Kanagawa Cancer Center, Kanagawa, Japan.
Kazuhiro IkegameDivision of Hematology, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Hyogo, Japan.
Takehiko MoriDivision of Hematology, Department of Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Koji IwatoDepartment of Hematology, Hiroshima Red Cross Hospital & Atomic-bomb Survivors Hospital, Hiroshima, Japan.
Tatsuo IchinoheDepartment of Hematology and Oncology, Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Yoshinobu KandaDivision of Hematology, Jichi Medical University, Saitama, Japan.
Yoshiko AtsutaJapanese Data Center for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation, Nagoya, Japan; and.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is 1 of the critical complications that often occurs following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Thus far, various types of prediction scores have been created using statistical calculations. The primary objective of this study was to establish and validate the machine learning-dependent index for predicting aGVHD. This was a retrospective cohort study that involved analyzing databases of adult HSCT patients in Japan. The alternating decision tree (ADTree) machine learning algorithm was applied to develop models using the training cohort (70%). The ADTree algorithm was confirmed using the hazard model on data from the validation cohort (30%). Data from 26 695 HSCT patients transplanted from allogeneic donors between 1992 and 2016 were included in this study. The cumulative incidence of aGVHD was 42.8%. Of >40 variables considered, 15 were adapted into a model for aGVHD prediction. The model was tested in the validation cohort, and the incidence of aGVHD was clearly stratified according to the categorized ADTree scores; the cumulative incidence of aGVHD was 29.0% for low risk and 58.7% for high risk (hazard ratio, 2.57). Predicting scores for aGVHD also demonstrated the link between the risk of development aGVHD and overall survival after HSCT. The machine learning algorithms produced clinically reasonable and robust risk stratification scores. The relatively high reproducibility and low impacts from the interactions among the variables indicate that the ADTree algorithm, along with the other data-mining approaches, may provide tools for establishing risk score.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsMachine LearningArea Under CurveFemaleGraft vs Host DiseaseHematologic DiseasesHematopoietic Stem Cell TransplantationHumansMaleModels, TheoreticalPrognosisReproducibility of ResultsTransplantation, Homologous

Identifiers

PMID31751471
PMCPMC6880900

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.