Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31739783›Full record

SynthesisBMC health services research2019

Mathematical modelling for health systems research: a systematic review of system dynamics and agent-based models.

Rachel Cassidy, Neha S Singh, Pierre-Raphaël Schiratti, Agnes Semwanga, Peter Binyaruka, Nkenda Sachingongu, Chitalu Miriam Chama-Chiliba, Zaid Chalabi, Josephine Borghi, Karl Blanchet

Open access · goldAbstract readSystematic Review
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMC health services research, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
58citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
15.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

58 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 133 citations in OpenAlex.

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  14. Real-time spatiotemporal tracking of infectious outbreaks in confined environments with a host-pathogen agent-based system.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

Rachel CassidyDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK. rachel.cassidy@lshtm.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4824-0260
Neha S SinghDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
Pierre-Raphaël SchirattiDepartment of Mathematics, University College London, London, UK.
Agnes SemwangaInformation Systems Department, College of Computing and Information Sciences, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda.
Peter BinyarukaIfakara Health Institute, PO Box 78373, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Nkenda SachingonguDepartment of Gender Studies, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Zambia, 10101, Lusaka, Zambia.
Chitalu Miriam Chama-ChilibaEconomic and Business Research Programme, University of Zambia, Institute of Economic and Social Research, P O Box 30900, 10101, Lusaka, Zambia.
Zaid ChalabiDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical, London, UK.
Josephine BorghiDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
Karl BlanchetDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBUniversity of Zambia · ZMIfakara Health Institute · TZMakerere University · UGRoyal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · GBUniversity College London · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R013454/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMathematical modelling has been a vital research tool for exploring complex systems, most recently to aid understanding of health system functioning and optimisation. System dynamics models (SDM) and agent-based models (ABM) are two popular complementary methods, used to simulate macro- and micro-level health system behaviour. This systematic review aims to collate, compare and summarise the application of both methods in this field and to identify common healthcare settings and problems that have been modelled using SDM and ABM.

methodsWe searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, MathSciNet, ACM Digital Library, HMIC, Econlit and Global Health databases to identify literature for this review. We described papers meeting the inclusion criteria using descriptive statistics and narrative synthesis, and made comparisons between the identified SDM and ABM literature.

resultsWe identified 28 papers using SDM methods and 11 papers using ABM methods, one of which used hybrid SDM-ABM to simulate health system behaviour. The majority of SDM, ABM and hybrid modelling papers simulated health systems based in high income countries. Emergency and acute care, and elderly care and long-term care services were the most frequently simulated health system settings, modelling the impact of health policies and interventions such as those targeting stretched and under resourced healthcare services, patient length of stay in healthcare facilities and undesirable patient outcomes.

conclusionsFuture work should now turn to modelling health systems in low- and middle-income countries to aid our understanding of health system functioning in these settings and allow stakeholders and researchers to assess the impact of policies or interventions before implementation. Hybrid modelling of health systems is still relatively novel but with increasing software developments and a growing demand to account for both complex system feedback and heterogeneous behaviour exhibited by those who access or deliver healthcare, we expect a boost in their use to model health systems.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalAgedDelivery of Health CareFemaleGovernment ProgramsHealth PolicyHealth ServicesHealth Services ResearchHumansIrelandMaleMedical AssistanceSystems AnalysisAgent-basedHealth systemsHybridModellingSystematic reviewSystem dynamics

Identifiers

PMID31739783
PMCPMC6862817
OpenAlexW2990683333

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.