ArticleEpidemics2020
Measles transmission during a large outbreak in California.
Article in Epidemics, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Hidden Burden of a Measles Outbreak Revealed by Genomic and Transmission Models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Real-time analytical insights for disease surveillance and response during the severe drought and food security crisis, Somalia 2022-2023.Conflict and health · 2026Article
- Detection of Immunity Gap before Measles Outbreak, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2024.Emerging infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Underimmunisation during the 2025 Texas measles outbreak.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Measles in Canada: modelling outbreaks with variable vaccine coverage and interventions.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People's Republic of China, August 2018-September 2019.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Unwelcome return: analyzing the recent rise of measles cases in the United States.Proceedings (Baylor University. Medical Center) · 2024Review
- Convergence on Coercion: Functional and Political Pressures as Drivers of Global Childhood Vaccine Mandates.International journal of health policy and management · 2022Article
- Monitoring real-time transmission heterogeneity from incidence data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Estimation of effects of contact tracing and mask adoption on COVID-19 transmission in San Francisco: a modeling study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020Article
- The digital immunization system of the future: imagining a patient-centric, interoperable immunization information system.Therapeutic advances in vaccines and immunotherapy · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
A large measles outbreak in 2014-2015, linked to Disneyland theme parks, attracted international attention, and led to changes in California vaccine policy. We use dates of symptom onset and known epidemic links for California cases in this outbreak to estimate time-varying transmission in the outbreak, and to estimate generation membership of cases probabilistically. We find that transmission declined significantly during the course of the outbreak (p = 0.012), despite also finding that estimates of transmission rate by day or by generation can overestimate temporal decline. We additionally find that the outbreak size and duration alone are sufficient in this case to distinguish temporal decline from time-invariant transmission (p = 0.014). As use of a single large outbreak can lead to underestimates of immunity, however, we urge caution in interpretation of quantities estimated from this outbreak alone. Further research is needed to distinguish causes of temporal decline in transmission rates.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.