Trial reportSpine deformity2019
Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Trial (BrAIST): Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model in Untreated Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Using the Simplified Skeletal Maturity System.
Trial report in Spine deformity, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT00448448 (Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Trial), which is not on this map. Cited by 24 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Bracing in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Trial (BrAIST)
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Prediction models for curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a systematic review with exploratory meta-analysis of discrimination.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2026Pooled it
- Curve type, flexibility, correction, and rotation are predictors of curve progression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis undergoing conservative treatment : a systematic review.The bone & joint journal · 2022Pooled it
- Scoliosis and Prognosis-a systematic review regarding patient-specific and radiological predictive factors for curve progression.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2021Pooled it
- Trial
- Primary care and idiopathic scoliosis: an evaluation of family physicians' roles.European journal of pediatrics · 2026Article
- Overlapping Sanders scores challenge age-based AIS/JIS classifications.Spine deformity · 2026Article
- Integration of three-dimensional spinal traction and conventional rehabilitation for structural correction in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a case report.Frontiers in sports and active living · 2026Article
- Assessment and Management of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis: From the Perspective of a Physiatrist.Annals of rehabilitation medicine · 2025Article
- Curve Progression in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis with Cobb Angles Between 40 and 50 Degrees at the Late Stage of Skeletal Growth: A Minimum 5-Year Follow-Up Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Idiopathic Scoliosis Progression: Presenting Rib and Segmental Rib Index as Predictors-A Literature Review.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Improving prediction of progression of idiopathic scoliosis based on curve size and skeletal maturity.Spine deformity · 2024Article
- Puberty changes the natural history of idiopathic scoliosis: three prediction models for future radiographic curve severity from 1563 consecutive patients.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2024Article
- A classification algorithm for prioritizing surgery in Pediatric patients with idiopathic scoliosis when Long Surgical delays are expected.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2024Article
- Prognostic model development for risk of curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a prospective cohort study of 127 patients.Acta orthopaedica · 2024Article
- Differences in spine growth potential for Sanders maturation stages 7A and 7B have implications for treatment of idiopathic scoliosis.Spine deformity · 2024Article
- Clinical Outcomes of 111 Patients with Early Onset Idiopathic Scoliosis (EOIS) Receiving Brace Treatment: A Longitudinal Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Personal and Clinical Determinants of Brace-Wearing Time in Adolescents with Idiopathic Scoliosis.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Early brace treatment for idiopathic scoliosis may change the paradigm to improve curves.Spine deformity · 2023Article
- Predictors of Clinically Meaningful Results of Bracing in a Large Cohort of Adolescents with Idiopathic Scoliosis Reaching the End of Conservative Treatment.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Dual modality of vertebral body tethering : anterior scoliosis correction versus growth modulation with mean follow-up of five years.Bone & joint open · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
Abstract
STUDY
designPrognostic study and validation using prospective clinical trial data.
objectiveTo derive and validate a model predicting curve progression to ≥45° before skeletal maturity in untreated patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Studies have linked the natural history of AIS with characteristics such as sex, skeletal maturity, curve magnitude, and pattern. The Simplified Skeletal Maturity Scoring System may be of particular prognostic utility for the study of curve progression. The reliability of the system has been addressed; however, its value as a prognostic marker for the outcomes of AIS has not. The BrAIST trial followed a sample of untreated AIS patients from enrollment to skeletal maturity, providing a rare source of prospective data for prognostic modeling.
methodsThe development sample included 115 untreated BrAIST participants. Logistic regression was used to predict curve progression to ≥45° (or surgery) before skeletal maturity. Predictors included the Cobb angle, age, sex, curve type, triradiate cartilage, and skeletal maturity stage (SMS). Internal and external validity was evaluated using jackknifed samples of the BrAIST data set and an independent cohort (n = 152). Indices of discrimination and calibration were estimated. A risk classification was created and the accuracy evaluated via the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV).
resultsThe final model included the SMS, Cobb angle, and curve type. The model demonstrated strong discrimination (c-statistics 0.89-0.91) and calibration in all data sets. The classification system resulted in PPVs of 0.71-0.72 and NPVs of 0.85-0.93.
conclusionsThis study provides the first rigorously validated model predicting a short-term outcome of untreated AIS. The resultant estimates can serve two important functions: 1) setting benchmarks for comparative effectiveness studies and 2) most importantly, providing clinicians and families with individual risk estimates to guide treatment decisions. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 1, prognostic.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.