Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31707763›Full record

ArticleEcology letters2020

Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse.

J Jelle Lever, Ingrid A van de Leemput, Els Weinans, Rick Quax, Vasilis Dakos, Egbert H van Nes, Jordi Bascompte, Marten Scheffer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Ecology letters, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Early Warning Signals in Ecological Time-Series.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
    Review
  2. Review
  3. Article
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  7. An information-theoretic foreshadowing of mathematicians' sudden insights.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  8. Revealing unseen dynamical regimes of ecosystems from population time-series data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Early warnings for multi-stage transitions in dynamics on networks.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Coexistence in diverse communities with higher-order interactions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

J Jelle LeverDepartment of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6313-2663
Ingrid A van de LeemputDepartment of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Els WeinansDepartment of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Rick QuaxComputational Science Lab, University of Amsterdam, NL-1098 XH, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0299-0074
Vasilis DakosInstitut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (ISEM), BioDICée Team, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8862-718X
Egbert H van NesDepartment of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6345-104X
Jordi BascompteDepartment of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0108-6411
Marten SchefferDepartment of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2100-0312

Funding

H2020 European Research CouncilNetherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) 024.002.001Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 31003A 169671
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Changing conditions may lead to sudden shifts in the state of ecosystems when critical thresholds are passed. Some well-studied drivers of such transitions lead to predictable outcomes such as a turbid lake or a degraded landscape. Many ecosystems are, however, complex systems of many interacting species. While detecting upcoming transitions in such systems is challenging, predicting what comes after a critical transition is terra incognita altogether. The problem is that complex ecosystems may shift to many different, alternative states. Whether an impending transition has minor, positive or catastrophic effects is thus unclear. Some systems may, however, behave more predictably than others. The dynamics of mutualistic communities can be expected to be relatively simple, because delayed negative feedbacks leading to oscillatory or other complex dynamics are weak. Here, we address the question of whether this relative simplicity allows us to foresee a community's future state. As a case study, we use a model of a bipartite mutualistic network and show that a network's post-transition state is indicated by the way in which a system recovers from minor disturbances. Similar results obtained with a unipartite model of facilitation suggest that our results are of relevance to a wide range of mutualistic systems.

Indexed as

EcosystemModels, BiologicalForecastingResidence CharacteristicsSymbiosiscritical slowing downCritical transitionsecological networksforecastingglobal environmental changemutualistic communitiespredictive ecology

Identifiers

PMID31707763
PMCPMC6916369

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.