Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31704805›Full record

ArticleJournal of epidemiology and community health2020

Trajectories of physical activity from midlife to old age and associations with subsequent cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality.

Daniel Aggio, Efstathios Papachristou, Olia Papacosta, Lucy T Lennon, Sarah Ash, Peter Whincup, S Goya Wannamethee, Barbara J Jefferis

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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Increasing the health span: unique role for exercise.Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985) · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Daniel AggioPrimary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK d.aggio@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-6752-0180
Efstathios PapachristouDepartment of Psychology & Human Development, University College London, London, UK.
Olia PapacostaPrimary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK.
Lucy T LennonPrimary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK.
Sarah AshPrimary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK.
Peter WhincupPopulation Health Research Institute, St George's University of London, London, UK.
S Goya WannametheePrimary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK.
Barbara J JefferisPrimary Care and Population Health, University College London, London, UK.

Funding

British Heart Foundation FS/15/70/32044British Heart Foundation PG/13/86/30546British Heart Foundation RG/13/16/30528British Heart Foundation RG/19/4/34452Department of Health
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionIt is well established that physical activity (PA) protects against mortality and morbidity, but how long-term patterns of PA are associated with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear.

methods3231 men recruited to the British Regional Heart Study, a prospective cohort study, reported usual PA levels at baseline in 1978-1980 (aged 40-59 years) and at 12-year, 16-year and 20-year follow ups. Twenty-year trajectories of PA, spanning from 1978/1980 to 2000, were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Men were subsequently followed up until 30 June 2016 for mortality through National Health Service central registers and for non-fatal CVD events through primary and secondary care records. Data analyses were conducted in 2019.

resultsThree PA trajectories were identified: low/decreasing (22.7%), light/stable (51.0%) and moderate/increasing (26.3%). Over a median follow-up of 16.4 years, there were 1735 deaths. Compared with the low/decreasing group, membership of the light/stable (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94) and moderate/increasing (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.88) groups was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality. Similar associations were observed for CVD mortality, major coronary heart disease and all CVD events. Associations were only partially explained by a range of confounders. Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival benefits were largely driven by most recent/current PA.

conclusionsA dose-response relationship was observed, with higher levels of PA from midlife to old age associated with additional benefits. However, even fairly modest and sustained PA was protective and may be more achievable for the most inactive.

Indexed as

Health BehaviorSedentary BehaviorAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAgingCardiovascular DiseasesCause of DeathCohort StudiesExerciseFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedProspective Studiesageingcardiovascular diseaseCHD/coronorary heartlife course epidemiologyphysical activity

Identifiers

PMID31704805
PMCPMC6993021

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.