ArticleThe Journal of animal ecology2020
Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator-prey interaction: Simpler works better.
Article in The Journal of animal ecology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Long-term annual seed production data of individual European beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees in the Netherlands.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Phenological mismatch is less important than total nectar availability for checkerspot butterflies.Ecology · 2024Article
- Different currencies for calculating resource phenology result in opposite inferences about trophic mismatches.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Variation in breeding phenology in response to climate change in two passerine species.Oecologia · 2023Article
- Article
- Dynamic sensitivity to resource availability influences population responses to mismatches in a shorebird.Ecology · 2022Article
- Article
- Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies.Ecology and evolution · 2021Review
- Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts.Nature ecology & evolution · 2021Review
- Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator-prey interaction: Simpler works better.The Journal of animal ecology · 2020Article
- Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches.Nature ecology & evolution · 2019Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Global climate change has sparked a vast research effort into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of mismatches between consumer and resource phenology. Many studies have used the difference in peak dates to quantify phenological synchrony (match in dates, MD), but this approach has been suggested to be inconclusive, since it does not incorporate the temporal overlap between the phenological distributions (match in overlap, MO). We used 24 years of detailed data on the phenology of a predator-prey system, the great tit (Parus major) and the main food for its nestlings, caterpillars, to estimate MD and MO at the population and brood levels. We compared the performance of both metrics on two key demographic parameters: offspring recruitment probability and selection on the timing of reproduction. Although MD and MO correlated quadratically as expected, MD was a better predictor for both offspring recruitment and selection on timing than MO. We argue-and verify through simulations-that this is because quantifying MO has to be based on nontrivial, difficult-to-verify assumptions that likely render MO too inaccurate as a proxy for food availability in practice. Our results have important implications for the allocation of research efforts in long-term population studies in highly seasonal environments.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.