Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31677766›Full record

ArticleSpatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology2019

Bayesian hierarchical spatial models: Implementing the Besag York Mollié model in stan.

Mitzi Morris, Katherine Wheeler-Martin, Dan Simpson, Stephen J Mooney, Andrew Gelman, Charles DiMaggio

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 69 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
69citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

69 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. A Systematic Review of Joint Spatial and Spatiotemporal Models in Health Research.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Pooled it
  2. Methods Used in the Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemiology: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Pooled it
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  9. An ecological cascade links climatic variability to avian irruptions and zoonotic salmonellosis outbreaks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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  13. Doubly regularized generalized linear models for spatial observations with high-dimensional covariates.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2025
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9 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Mitzi MorrisInstitute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States.
Katherine Wheeler-MartinDepartment of Surgery, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY, United States. Electronic address: katherine.wheeler-martin@nyulangone.org.
Dan SimpsonDepartment of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Stephen J MooneyDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.
Andrew GelmanDepartment of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States.
Charles DiMaggioDepartment of Surgery, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY, United States.

Funding

Data Integration and Advanced Statistical Modeling to Describe and Control Pediatric Pedestrian Injuries in The United StatesR01HD087460 · NICHD · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI DIMAGGIO, CHARLES · 2016 to 2018
$984k
NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD087460
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This report presents a new implementation of the Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model in Stan, a probabilistic programming platform which does full Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We review the spatial auto-correlation models used for areal data and disease risk mapping, and describe the corresponding Stan implementations. We also present a case study using Stan to fit a BYM model for motor vehicle crashes injuring school-age pedestrians in New York City from 2005 to 2014 localized to census tracts. Stan efficiently fit our multivariable BYM model having a large number of observations (n=2095 census tracts) with small outcome counts < 10 in the majority of tracts. Our findings reinforced that neighborhood income and social fragmentation are significant correlates of school-age pedestrian injuries. We also observed that nationally-available census tract estimates of commuting methods may serve as a useful indicator of underlying pedestrian densities.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalSpatial AnalysisAccidents, TrafficBayes TheoremHumansNew York CityBayesian inferenceBesag-York-Mollié modelIntrinsic conditional auto-regressive modelPedestrian injuriesProbabilistic programmingStan

Identifiers

PMID31677766
PMCPMC6830524

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.