Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31673337›Full record

ArticleJournal of global health2019

Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project.

John Paget, Peter Spreeuwenberg, Vivek Charu, Robert J Taylor, A Danielle Iuliano, Joseph Bresee, Lone Simonsen, Cecile Viboud, Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams*

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of global health, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 404 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
404citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
54.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

404 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 706 citations in OpenAlex.

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344 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

John PagetNetherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Peter SpreeuwenbergNetherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Vivek CharuFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Robert J TaylorSage Analytica, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
A Danielle IulianoCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Joseph BreseeCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Lone SimonsenGeorge Washington University, Washington, D.C., USA.
Cecile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams*
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention · USFogarty International Center · USNetherlands Institute for Health Services Research · NLRoskilde University · DK

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUntil recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 all-cause deaths globally; however, a 2017 study indicated a substantially higher mortality burden, at 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone, and a 2019 study estimated 99 000-200 000 deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly caused by influenza. Here we revisit global and regional estimates of influenza mortality burden and explore mortality trends over time and geography.

methodsWe compiled influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates for 31 countries representing 5 WHO regions during 2002-2011. From these we extrapolated the influenza burden for all 193 countries of the world using a multiple imputation approach. We then used mixed linear regression models to identify factors associated with high seasonal influenza mortality burden, including influenza types and subtypes, health care and socio-demographic development indicators, and baseline mortality levels.

resultsWe estimated an average of 389 000 (uncertainty range 294 000-518

conclusionsOur global estimate of influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality is consistent with the 2017 estimate, despite a different modelling strategy, and the lower 2019 estimate which only captured deaths directly caused by influenza. Our finding that baseline respiratory mortality and access to health care are associated with influenza-related mortality in persons <65 years suggests that health care improvements in low and middle-income countries might substantially reduce seasonal influenza mortality. Our estimates add to the body of evidence on the variation in influenza burden over time and geography, and begin to address the relationship between influenza-associated mortality, health and development.

Indexed as

EpidemicsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolGlobal HealthHumansInfantInfant, NewbornInfluenza, HumanLinear ModelsMiddle AgedRisk FactorsSeasons

Identifiers

PMID31673337
PMCPMC6815659
OpenAlexW2981907242

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.