Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31667745›Full record

ArticleJournal of general internal medicine2020

The Accuracy of Cardiovascular Pooled Cohort Risk Estimates in U.S. Older Adults.

Michael G Nanna, Eric D Peterson, Daniel Wojdyla, Ann Marie Navar

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of general internal medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
12.0field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 58 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Guideline
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  9. Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Older Adults.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2025
    Review
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  12. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Michael G NannaDuke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, 27710, USA. michael.nanna@duke.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-5745-1636
Eric D PetersonDuke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, 27710, USA.
Daniel WojdylaDuke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, 27710, USA.
Ann Marie NavarDuke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, 27710, USA.
Duke University · US

Funding

Postdoctoral Training in Cardiovascular Clinical ResearchT32HL069749 · NHLBI · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI MARK, DANIEL B · 2003 to 2023
$6.7M
CHS research resources for the cardiovascular health of older adultsU01HL130114 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI BURKE, GREGORY L, KRONMAL, RICHARD A · 2016 to 2019
$6.6M
Preventing Cardiovascular Disease through Improved Risk Prediction and CommunicationK01HL133416 · NHLBI · DUKE UNIVERSITY · PI NAVAR, ANN MARIE · 2016 to 2020
$707k
NHLBI NIH HHS K01 HL133416NHLBI NIH HHS T32 HL069749NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL130114NIH HHS K01HL133416-01NIH HHS T-32-HL069749-15
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe ACC/AHA guidelines for primary prevention rely on the Pooled Cohort Risk Equations (PCE) risk estimates of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) to guide treatment decisions. In light of the PCE being derived in younger populations, their accuracy in older adults is uncertain.

objectiveTo evaluate the predictive accuracy and calibration of the PCE in older individuals. DESIGN AND

settingWe estimated CVD predicted and observed risk among individuals from four large prospective cohort studies: Cardiovascular Health Study, Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, Framingham Original, and Framingham Offspring.

participants12,527 overall individuals without ASCVD, including 9864 individuals aged 40-74 years and 2663 aged ≥75 years. MEASUREMENTS: We examined the operating characteristics of the PCE to estimate 5-year risk of stroke, MI, and CHD death overall and by age and sex strata. The associations between individual components of the PCE and cardiovascular events by age group (≥75 vs 40-74 years) were also evaluated.

resultsThe PCE had low discrimination for 5-year ASCVD risk in older (≥75 years) (c-statistic = 0.62, 95% CI 0.60-0.65) vs. younger (40-74 years) adults (c-statistic = 0.75, 95% CI 0.73-0.76). Calibration of the PCE was suboptimal in both older and younger adults, overestimating risk in the highest risk groups. Performance of the PCE in older adults was similarly poor when stratified by sex and age ≥ 80 years. LIMITATIONS: Since the PCE were derived from similar cohorts, though using different age groups and exams, this analysis likely overestimates the performance of the PCE.

conclusionThe performance of the PCE for ASCVD risk estimation in older adults is suboptimal; new models to effectively risk-stratify older adults are needed.

Indexed as

AtherosclerosisCardiovascular DiseasesStrokeAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCohort StudiesHumansMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsatherosclerotic cardiovascular diseasegeriatricolder adultspooled cohort equationsrisk

Identifiers

PMID31667745
PMCPMC7280419
OpenAlexW2982517534

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.