ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2019
Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- The cross-city mobility patterns and incubation period of the early-stage chikungunya fever outbreak in Guangdong Province, China, in 2025.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, and the current situation of dengue fever and chikungunya in Iran and neighboring countries: a review study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Review
- Virological, Serological and Clinical Analysis of Chikungunya Virus Infection in Thai Patients.Viruses · 2022Article
- Reducing dengue fever cases at the lowest budget: a constrained optimization approach applied to Thailand.BMC public health · 2021Article
- Modelling airport catchment areas to anticipate the spread of infectious diseases across land and air travel.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2021Article
- Enhanced event-based surveillance for imported diseases during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games.Western Pacific surveillance and response journal : WPSARArticle
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination, we sought to determine international case exportation risk and identify countries at greatest risk of receiving travel-associated imported CHIKV cases. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected number of exported cases from Southern Thailand between October 2018 and April 2019. The model incorporated data on CHIKV natural history, infection rates in Southern Thailand, average length of stay for tourists, and international outbound air passenger numbers from the outbreak area. For countries highly connected to Southern Thailand by air travel, we ran 1000 simulations to estimate the expected number of imported cases. We also identified destination countries with conditions suitable for autochthonous CHIKV transmission. Over the outbreak period, we estimated that an average of 125 (95% credible interval (CrI): 102-149) cases would be exported from Southern Thailand to international destinations via air travel. China was projected to receive the most cases (43, 95% CrI: 30-56), followed by Singapore (7, 95% CrI: 2-12) and Malaysia (5, 95% CrI: 1-10). Twenty-three countries were projected to receive at least one imported case, and 64% of these countries had one or more regions that could potentially support autochthonous CHIKV transmission. The overall risk of international exportation of CHIKV cases associated with the outbreak is Southern Thailand is high. Our model projections are consistent with recent reports of CHIKV in travelers returning from the region. Countries should be alert to the possibility of CHIKV infection in returning travelers, particularly in regions where autochthonous transmission is possible.
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