ArticleScientific reports2019
Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors.
Article in Scientific reports, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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14 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Features of pediatric spontaneous pneumomediastinum: a single-center, retrospective case series.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2026Article
- Temperature-based spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hand, foot, and mouth disease transmission in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in mainland China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Bayesian joint spatiotemporal modelling of primary infection and reinfection of HFMD at county level in Jiangsu, China, 2009-2023.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo from 2014 to 2019: a causal convolutional neural networks.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhengzhou, China, 2014-2022: a retrospective study.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Exploring the influence of COVID-19 on the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease with an automatic machine learning prediction model.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2023Article
- Comparison of Three Prediction Models for Predicting Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in China.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2023Article
- Application of logistic differential equation models for early warning of infectious diseases in Jilin Province.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Prediction of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics in Japan using a long short-term memory approach.PloS one · 2022Article
- Seasonality and Meteorological Factors Associated With Different Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: Serotype-Specific Analysis From 2010 to 2018 in Zhejiang Province, China.Frontiers in microbiology · 2022Article
- Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease and Their Influencing Factors in Urumqi, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Time series analysis of temporal trends in hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome morbidity rate in China from 2005 to 2019.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Time series analysis of cumulative incidences of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in China using both Grey and SARIMA models.PloS one · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute intestinal virus infectious disease which is one of major public health problems in mainland China. Previous studies indicated that HFMD was significantly influenced by climatic factors, but the associated factors were different in different areas and few study on HFMD forecast models was conducted. Here, we analyzed epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province and constructed three forecast models. Overall, a total of 32554 HFMD cases were reported and 12 cases deceased in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province. The incidence of HFMD peaked every other year and the curve of HFMD incidence had an approximately W-shape. The majority of HFMD cases were children and 95.76% cases aged ≤5 years old from 2008 to 2016. Furthermore, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). All the three models had high agreements between predicted values and observed values, while GAM fitted best. The exposure-response curve of monthly mean temperature and HFMD was approximately V-shaped. Our study explored epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City and provided accurate methods for early warning which would be great importance for the control and prevention of HFMD.
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