Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31658269›Full record

ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2019

Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Christopher N Davis, Kat S Rock, Erick Mwamba Miaka, Matt J Keeling

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
3.8field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 38 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. ModellingJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021
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  10. Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Christopher N DavisMathSys CDT, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-2665-0127
Kat S RockZeeman Institute (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
Erick Mwamba MiakaProgramme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA), Ave Coisement Liberation et Bd Triomphal No 1, Commune de Kasavubu, Kinshasa, Demecratic Republic of the Congo.
Matt J KeelingZeeman Institute (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-4639-4765
University of Warwick · GBProgramme National Multisectoriel de Lutte contre le sida · CD

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is one of several neglected tropical diseases that is targeted for elimination by the World Health Organization. Recent years have seen a substantial decline in the number of globally reported cases, largely driven by an intensive process of screening and treatment. However, this infection is highly focal, continuing to persist at low prevalence even in small populations. Regional elimination, and ultimately global eradication, rests on understanding the dynamics and persistence of this infection at the local population scale. Here we develop a stochastic model of gHAT dynamics, which is underpinned by screening and reporting data from one of the highest gHAT incidence regions, Kwilu Province, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. We use this model to explore the persistence of gHAT in villages of different population sizes and subject to different patterns of screening. Our models demonstrate that infection is expected to persist for long periods even in relatively small isolated populations. We further use the model to assess the risk of recrudescence following local elimination and consider how failing to detect cases during active screening events informs the probability of elimination. These quantitative results provide insights for public health policy in the region, particularly highlighting the difficulties in achieving and measuring the 2030 elimination goal.

Indexed as

CongoForecastingGeographic MappingHealth PolicyHumansIncidenceMass ScreeningPopulation DensityPrevalencePublic HealthTrypanosoma brucei gambienseTrypanosomiasis, AfricanWorld Health Organization

Identifiers

PMID31658269
PMCPMC6837580
OpenAlexW2981455864

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.