A predictive model for non-completion of an intensive specialist obesity service in a public hospital: a case-control study.

backgroundDespite the growing evidence base supporting intensive lifestyle and medical treatments for severe obesity, patient engagement in specialist obesity services is difficult to achieve and poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we aimed to develop a model for predicting non-completion of a specialist multidisciplinary service for clinically severe obesity, termed the Metabolic Rehabilitation Programme (MRP).

methodUsing a case-control study design in a public hospital setting, we extracted data from medical records for all eligible patients with a body mass index (BMI) of ≥35 kg/m

resultsOut of the 219 eligible patient records, 78 (35.6%) non-completion cases were identified. Significant differences between non-completers versus completers were: age (47.1 versus 54.5 years, p < 0.001); residential distance from the clinic (21.8 versus 17.1 km, p = 0.018); obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) (42.9% versus 56.7%, p = 0.050) and CPAP therapy (11.7% versus 28.4%, p = 0.005). The probability of non-completion could be independently associated with age, residential distance, and either OSA or CPAP. There was no statistically significant difference in performance between the alternate models (69.5% versus 66.4%, p = 0.57).

conclusionsNon-completion of intensive specialist obesity management services is most common among younger patients, with fewer complex care needs, and those living further away from the clinic. Clinicians should be aware of these potential risk factors for dropping out early when managing outpatients with severe obesity, whereas policy makers might consider strategies for increasing access to specialist obesity management services.