Identifying high risk areas of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia.

backgroundSeveral Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred since October 2015. Because there is no effective treatment for ZIKV infection, developing an effective surveillance and warning system is currently a high priority to prevent ZIKV infection. Despite Aedes mosquitos having been known to spread ZIKV, the calculation approach is diverse, and only applied to local areas. This study used meteorological measurements to monitor ZIKV infection due to the high correlation between climate change and Aedes mosquitos and the convenience to obtain meteorological data from weather monitoring stations.

methodsThis study applied the Bayesian structured additive regression modeling approach to include spatial interactive terms with meteorological factors and a geospatial function in a zero-inflated Poisson model. The study area contained 32 administrative departments in Colombia from October 2015 to December 2017. Weekly ZIKV infection cases and daily meteorological measurements were collected. Mapping techniques were adopted to visualize spatial findings. A series of model selections determined the best combinations of meteorological factors in the same model.

resultsWhen multiple meteorological factors are considered in the same model, both total rainfall and average temperature can best assess the geographic disparities of ZIKV infection. Meanwhile, a 1-in. increase in rainfall is associated with an increase in the logarithm of relative risk (logRR) of ZIKV infection of at most 1.66 (95% credible interval [CI] = 1.09, 2.15) as well as a 1 °F increase in average temperature is significantly associated with at most 0.79 (95% CI = 0.12, 1.22) increase in the logRR of ZIKV. Moreover, after controlling rainfall and average temperature, an independent geospatial function in the model results in two departments with an excessive ZIKV risk which may be explained by unobserved factors other than total rainfall and average temperature.

conclusionOur study found that meteorological factors are significantly associated with ZIKV infection across departments. The study determined both total rainfall and average temperature as the best meteorological factors to identify high risk departments of ZIKV infection. These findings can help governmental agencies monitor at risk areas according to meteorological measurements, and develop preventions in those at risk areas in priority.