Evidence map›Paper›PMID 31640802›Full record

ArticleRadiation oncology (London, England)2019

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for radiotherapy-related esophageal fistula in esophageal cancer.

Yiyue Xu, Linlin Wang, Bo He, Wanlong Li, Qiang Wen, Shijiang Wang, Xindong Sun, Xue Meng, Jinming Yu

Open access · goldAbstract readMulticenter StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Radiation oncology (London, England), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
4.0field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 33 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Yiyue XuSchool of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Linlin WangDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.440, Ji Yan Road, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, People's Republic of China. wanglinlinatjn@163.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2231-6642
Bo HeSchool of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Wanlong LiDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.440, Ji Yan Road, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, People's Republic of China.
Qiang WenProvincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Shijiang WangDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.440, Ji Yan Road, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, People's Republic of China.
Xindong SunDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.440, Ji Yan Road, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, People's Republic of China.
Xue MengDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.440, Ji Yan Road, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, People's Republic of China. mengxue5409@126.com.
Jinming YuDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.440, Ji Yan Road, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, People's Republic of China.
Shandong Tumor Hospital · CNShandong University · CN

Funding

Key Technologies Research and Development Program 2018YFC1313201Key Technology Research and Development Program of Shandong 2016CYJS01A03Postdoctoral Innovation of Shandong Province 201501010 and 201601006Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China 2016M590640
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesWe aimed to identify the risk factors and provide a nomogram for the prediction of radiotherapy-related esophageal fistula in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) using a case-control study. PATIENTS AND

methodsPatients with esophageal fistula who received radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy between 2003 and 2017 were retrospectively collected in two institutions. In the training cohort (TC), clinical, pathologic, and serum data of 136 patients (cases) who developed esophageal fistula during or after radiotherapy were enrolled and compared with 272 controls (1:2 matched with the diagnosis time of EC, sex, marriage, and race). After the univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses, the independent risk factors were identified and incorporated into a nomogram. Then the nomogram for the risk prediction was externally validated in the validation cohort (VC; 47 cases and 94 controls) using bootstrap resampling.

resultsMultivariable analyses demonstrated that ECOG PS, BMI, T4, N2/3 and re-radiotherapy were independent factors for esophageal fistula. Then a nomogram was constructed with the C-index of 0.805 (95% CI, 0.762-0.848) for predicting the risk of developing esophageal fistula in EC patients receiving radiotherapy. Importantly, the C-index maintained 0.764 (95% CI, 0.683-0.845) after the external validation.

conclusionsWe created and externally validated the first risk nomogram of esophageal fistula associated with radiotherapy. This will aid individual risk stratification of patients with EC developing esophageal fistula.

Indexed as

NomogramsCase-Control StudiesChemoradiotherapyEsophageal FistulaEsophageal NeoplasmsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsROC CurveEsophageal cancerEsophageal fistulaNomogramRadiotherapyRisk factors

Identifiers

PMID31640802
PMCPMC6805370
OpenAlexW2981335948

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.