ArticlePLoS computational biology2019
The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Stimulus reliability but not boundary distance manipulations violate the folded-X pattern of confidence.Cognition · 2026Article
- dynConfiR: An R package for sequential sampling models of decision confidence.Behavior research methods · 2026Article
- Metacognition of ChatGPT in confidence judgements.Frontiers in artificial intelligence · 2026Article
- Response Time as a Proxy for Decision Confidence: Insights From Type-2 ROC Analysis.Open mind : discoveries in cognitive science · 2026Article
- Using artificial neural networks to reveal the human confidence computation.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Long-term perceptual priors drive confidence bias that favors prior-congruent evidence.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Information-Theoretic Measures of Metacognition: Bounds and Relation to Group Performance.Open mind : discoveries in cognitive science · 2025Article
- Challenging the Bayesian confidence hypothesis in perceptual decision-making.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Confidence Is Influenced by Evidence Accumulation Time in Dynamical Decision Models.Computational brain & behavior · 2024Article
- A low-dimensional approximation of optimal confidence.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Prior information differentially affects discrimination decisions and subjective confidence reports.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Judgments of agency are affected by sensory noise without recruiting metacognitive processing.eLife · 2022Article
- The positive evidence bias in perceptual confidence is unlikely post-decisional.Neuroscience of consciousness · 2022Article
- Article
- Contributions of anterior cingulate cortex and basolateral amygdala to decision confidence and learning under uncertainty.Nature communications · 2019Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Recent studies have traced the neural correlates of confidence in perceptual choices using statistical signatures of confidence. The most widely used statistical signature is the folded X-pattern, which was derived from a standard model of confidence assuming an objective definition of confidence as the posterior probability of making the correct choice given the evidence. The folded X-pattern entails that confidence as the subjective probability of being correct equals the probability of 0.75 if the stimulus in neutral about the choice options, increases with discriminability of the stimulus in correct trials, and decreases with discriminability in incorrect trials. Here, we show that the standard model of confidence is a special case in which there is no reliable trial-by-trial evidence about discriminability itself. According to a more general model, if there is enough evidence about discriminability, objective confidence is characterised by different pattern: For both correct and incorrect choices, confidence increases with discriminability. In addition, we demonstrate the consequence if discriminability is varied in discrete steps within the standard model: confidence in choices about neutral stimuli is no longer .75. Overall, identifying neural correlates of confidence by presupposing the folded X-pattern as a statistical signature of confidence is not legitimate.
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