Trial reportThe Journal of infectious diseases2020
Modeling Approaches to Predicting Persistent Hotspots in SCORE Studies for Gaining Control of Schistosomiasis Mansoni in Kenya and Tanzania.
Trial report in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- School-aged Schistosoma mansoni infection levels after long-term programmatic control show failure to meet control programme targets and evidence of a persistent hotspot: evaluation of the FibroScHot trial baseline data.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Trial
- Challenges in Protocol Development and Interpretation of the Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation Intervention Studies.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Trial
- Potential of machine learning for prevention and control of neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Identifying hotspots of S. haematobium infection following praziquantel treatment during multiple annual mass drug administration campaigns in Zimbabwe.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Identifying key aspects to enhance predictive modeling for early identification of schistosomiasis hotspots to guide mass drug administration.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Development of prediction models to identify hotspots of schistosomiasis in endemic regions to guide mass drug administration.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Prediction of antischistosomal small molecules using machine learning in the era of big data.Molecular diversity · 2022Review
- Predicting future community-level ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection prevalence using serological, clinical, molecular, and geospatial data.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Discovering, Defining, and Summarizing Persistent Hotspots in SCORE Studies.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSome villages, labeled "persistent hotspots (PHS)," fail to respond adequately in regard to prevalence and intensity of infection to mass drug administration (MDA) for schistosomiasis. Early identification of PHS, for example, before initiating or after 1 or 2 years of MDA could help guide programmatic decision making.
methodsIn a study with multiple rounds of MDA, data collected before the third MDA were used to predict PHS. We assessed 6 predictive approaches using data from before MDA and after 2 rounds of annual MDA from Kenya and Tanzania.
resultsGeneralized linear models with variable selection possessed relatively stable performance compared with tree-based methods. Models applied to Kenya data alone or combined data from Kenya and Tanzania could reach over 80% predictive accuracy, whereas predicting PHS for Tanzania was challenging. Models developed from one country and validated in another failed to achieve satisfactory performance. Several Year-3 variables were identified as key predictors.
conclusionsStatistical models applied to Year-3 data could help predict PHS and guide program decisions, with infection intensity, prevalence of heavy infections (≥400 eggs/gram of feces), and total prevalence being particularly important factors. Additional studies including more variables and locations could help in developing generalizable models.
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